The best outcome would be for the republicans to retake the senate while losing McConnell, Graham and Cochran. That means nine seats, AK, AR, LA, WV, MT, MN, IA, NC, MI, CO, with VA, NH and OR as unlikely possibilities.
Will it be the year that Harry The Reid goes home for good ?
There is too much Anti-Bush on the brain in this Larry Sabato article to even take it serious at the moment.
Historical voting patterns clearly demonstrate that the Party out of power usually make significant gains in midterm elections. This is especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration. Consider the following facts:
In 1958 (6th year of the Eisenhower Administration) the Democrats scored a massive victory in the midterm elections.
In 1966 (6th year of the JFK-LBJ Administrations) the GOP scored a massive victory in the midterm elections.
In 1974 (6th year of the Nixon-Ford Administrations) the Democrats scored a massive victory in the midterm elections.
In 1986 (6th year of the Reagan Administration) the Democrats scored a massive victory in the midterm elections retaking the US Senate.
In 1998 (6th year of the Clinton Administration) the GOP did not score huge gains, but that is mainly because they scored a massive victory already in the 1994 midterm elections and managed to keep control of both the House and Senate for the last six years of the Clinton Administration.
In 2006 (6th year of the Bush Administration) the Democrats scored a massive gain in the midterm elections taking both the House and the US Senate.
Polls fluctuate back and forth. But historical patterns remain relatively constant over the years. The Dems are particularly vulnerable defending US Senate seats in a large number of red states carried by both McCain and MR where BHO poll ratings are even lower than the national level. This probably explains BHO’s obsession with fundraising. They know they know they are in deep do do.
I have refused to allow myself any elation at all over the prospect of the GOP strengthening its hold on the House and winning the Senate.
Because that joy would soon melt into nausea when that little turtle, McConnell, waves his chubby arms in victory on election night. With him as Senate majority leader and Boo-Hoo Boehner as Speaker, there can be no real victory for conservatives.
Have to agree with Sabato. I don’t see this lining up as some big Repub year as earlier predicted. There is no excitement here in NH, in what should be a competitive race. Shaheen seems now to be running away with it, incredibly. Also, the Tea Party is not fired up like it was in 2010. And if you look at each contest singularly, the Dems are holding their own in the 4 big (red state) races that were supposed to be slam dunks for the GOP - LA, NC, AR, AK. All four are dead heats. Repubs basically have 3 locked up (WV, MT, and ND). But that’s it. They could win 3 or 9.
+4 for the GOP is where I strongly believe it’ll all shake out.