IDF: Bet Hanun deaths result of human, technical error

- The IDF Gaza Division - which has sharply reduced the use of artillery fire since August - then instructed the nearest artillery battery to be prepared to shell the site in order to deter the Kassam rocket launchers from going there. The battery then made the usual preparations to adjust firing range, firing three or four shells at a site a few hundred meters away from the real target and using the battery's radar to find out where they had landed. The unit then adjusted the guns' settings accordingly.

- At about 5:30 AM Wednesday, the battery fired 12 shells pre-programmed to land about 1,200 meters from the homes in Bet Hanun. These shells scored direct hits and caused no casualties. Fifteen minutes later, the battery fired another 12 shells, this time programmed to land about 450 meters from the homes. According to the battery's radar, 10 shells hit their target, but the radar was unable to determine where the other two had landed. Minutes later, the first reports of civilian casualties in Bet Hanun arrived.

IDF spokespersons and officers told Ha'aretz that the accepted margin of error for artillery shells is about 200 meters, which is why regulations for Gaza fire missions state that targets must be at least 200 to 300 meters from civilian homes. A 450-meter change in target, however, would require only a three-degree deviation in the gun barrel - an amount undetectable to the human eye.

An IDF inquiry committee charged with examining an artillery foul-up in Bet Hanun yesterday that killed 19 Palestinian civilians - mostly women and children - is examining two main options for what could have caused the accident. Ha’aretz reports that the believes two shells out of a salvo of 12 strayed no more than 500 meters off target due to either a technical failure or human error.

The problem (or error) could have occurred in either the artillery battery’s radar or its firing computer, both of which are operated manually, and the panel is schedule to submit its findings to Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz and IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz by Thursday night. Based on the committee’s current findings, the course of events leading up to the incident is as follows:
- At 4 PM on Tuesday, four upgraded Kassam rockets were fired at Ashkelon from a grove just north of Bet Hanun. No one was injured. Later that evening, the IDF received intelligence that Hamas intended to fire more of the new-model Kassams on Wednesday morning from the same site - chosen because it is not visible from any IDF lookout post.

- The IDF Gaza Division - which has sharply reduced the use of artillery fire since August - then instructed the nearest artillery battery to be prepared to shell the site in order to deter the Kassam rocket launchers from going there. The battery then made the usual preparations to adjust firing range, firing three or four shells at a site a few hundred meters away from the real target and using the battery’s radar to find out where they had landed. The unit then adjusted the guns’ settings accordingly.

- At about 5:30 AM Wednesday, the battery fired 12 shells pre-programmed to land about 1,200 meters from the homes in Bet Hanun. These shells scored direct hits and caused no casualties. Fifteen minutes later, the battery fired another 12 shells, this time programmed to land about 450 meters from the homes. According to the battery’s radar, 10 shells hit their target, but the radar was unable to determine where the other two had landed. Minutes later, the first reports of civilian casualties in Bet Hanun arrived.

IDF spokespersons and officers told Ha’aretz that the accepted margin of error for artillery shells is about 200 meters, which is why regulations for Gaza fire missions state that targets must be at least 200 to 300 meters from civilian homes. A 450-meter change in target, however, would require only a three-degree deviation in the gun barrel - an amount undetectable to the human eye.

Um, no: The article says that the shift was about 450 meters in deviation and that the change in tube direction was "about 3 degrees" or approximately 53 mils. Using my handy-dandy artillery math, that gives an approximate range to target of 8,500 meters which is right in the sweet spot for the 155mm howitzer (8,500 meters is way out of range for their smoothbore 120mm mortars and I am not aware of the Israelis using 105s). The Circle Error Probable (CEP) for the 155mm is just about 50m at 8,500m but usually better if they pay close attention to MVVs and sight picture.

Therefore, nobody makes a 200m error (much less two of them) unless one or more of the guncrews screwed up with sight settings or boresight or lay.

They are lying when they blame the weapon. It is also irresponsible to rely on radar spots for verifying impacts: far too imprecise for Danger Close missions near friendlies or noncombatants.

I heard a ceasefire call once on a range from the gun-bunnies. We were doing UAV ops with them spotting rounds when they said something like, "Check fire! check fire! check fire! "Lock up ring? lock the breach??" or something. The gun crews RAN out of the 155mm like it was about to explode about 50m away and got in Dress-right-dress formation.

Apparently a round was unaccounted for and thought to have left the range. You'd thought that they just shelled Lawton, OK or something. Everyones butthole puckered up real quick and we went on radio/phone silence and lockdown.

I never found out what happened, but an hour later, we were back at work.

Yup, happens all too often. The correct command is CHECK FIRE, CHECK FIRE and "To the rear of the piece, fall in". The gun crew stays there until the firing data on the weapon is verified and correct projectile, fuze and propellant charge is verified. Generally, if nobody's hurt and the round lands within the impact area, it's a learning moment with a brand-new Section Chief. The old one becomes "Local Security NCO" or some such.

If the round lands in some place near innocents/outside the impact area or heaven forbid, someone is killed or injured, whole different ballgame: courts-martial, relief for cause all the way up to the battalion commander and more.

Such is life in artillery - almost all of the rounds we fire are really lethal and once it's on its way, there's no bringing it back.

~IDF spokespersons and officers told Ha’aretz that the accepted margin of error for artillery shells is about 200 meters, which is why regulations for Gaza fire missions state that targets must be at least 200 to 300 meters from civilian homes.~

Aren’t terrorists informed? Is it ever possible to win a war with rules like that?

~If the round lands in some place near innocents/outside the impact area or heaven forbid, someone is killed or injured, whole different ballgame: courts-martial, relief for cause all the way up to the battalion commander and more.~

I wonder who wants to serve under the rules like this unless there is involuntary conscription in place.

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