Something few people realize is that as time passes a nuclear exchange becomes more and more likely. As more small states develop their defensive and offensive capabilities, the likelihood that some regional conflict will spark off a few mushroom clouds increases exponentially.
Further, the demographic reshuffling of post-war western Europe led to nations that were largely homogenous and significantly united by common language, history, and self-interest. One of the most significant of the historical flash-points of European conflict, un-assimilated populations from another country residing within one’s borders (Alsace/Lorraine, Sudatenland, etc,), have been removed from the post-war map of Europe. Many of these areas experienced what was, effectively, ethnic cleansing following the end of the second world war.
One of the contributing factors behind the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries was that unlike western Europe those nations were left in the unenviable position of trying to overcome ‘diversity’ and forge a united political and social front. The post-war stability in western Europe (and the phenomenally abnormal lack of armed conflict in western Europe during that time) is a direct consequence of this comparative homogeneity. But as time has marched on divisive elements have been introduced into western Europe, adding an adversarial element to the political process in many of those nations and promising future unrest. If demographic and cultural trends are allowed to continue apace, we might see ethnic strife similar to that which tore Yugoslavia apart played out on a larger scale in Europe.
Then we have a resurgent China making long-term preparations towards achieving regional super-power status and hegemonic control of many parts of Asia. Armed conflict between the United States and China may be inevitable at this point, which as unfortunate as it would be is still likely preferable to an American capitulation the likes of which would issue from any administration as feckless as the current one.
The post-cold-war era was one of those exceptionally rare moments of relative serenity in world history, one that’s not likely to be repeated any time soon. I don’t think many people alive today realize what a unique and rare respite this is, how historically abnormal and unsustainable this long run of peace is, and I doubt many people pause to enjoy it as they should.
Another factor to consider - Fukushima has opened Pandoras box. We now have a guaranteed nuclear contaminated future. The only method to stop the three entire melted down reactors from eventually entering the Pacific Ocean, the Giant Ice Wall, has failed. They cannot get the ground to freeze probably due to the heat of the hot core remnants. That means that all three reactors cores will eventually be washed out into the Pacific. May take 100 years to flush it all out, but no way to stop it now.
So the nuclear gloves are coming off. World wide contamination is guaranteed now.