Kentucky politics can largely be explained by the state’s congressional districts. The 1st
and 2nd Districts are (roughly) the Jackson Purchase and Pennyrile areas of the state, which
vote like the Deep South. The 3rd and 6th Districts represent urban Louisville and greater
, while the 4th District is the Republican suburbs of Cincinnati and Louisville. The 5th
District is an amalgam of two older districts, one of which was old mountain Republican territory,
and one of which was heavily unionized and Democratic coal mining country. The name of the game
for Republicans is to run well in the 4th and 5th and hold their ground in the 1st and 2nd, while
Democrats try to add to their bases in Louisville, Lexington, and the coal mining areas of the 5th.
The problem for Democrats is that the coal mining areas of the 5th have steadily drifted away
from them over the past decade. Sen. Rand Paul owes much of his 2010 victory to outsized Republican
margins in the area, margins that were matched by Republican presidential candidates in
2008 and 2012. At the same time, Democrats have managed to enjoy continued success at the local
level, and hold most statewide offices.
That encapsulates the million-dollar question for 2014, when the very unpopular Senate majority
leader, Mitch McConnell, will face off against Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. If
Grimes can push into the historic Democratic base in coal country, this election will probably
stay close. If not, the 44 percent of the vote that Grimes is currently receiving will probably
represent something of a ceiling for her.
A direct quote from a Kentucky union coal miner grandmother......”I just can’t vote for that boy with th funny name”