It probably will. I think Boehner was comfortable with the idea of a Speaker Cantor. I think he was going to run this fall just to win and show that he wasn't being forced out of office, then retire early in his next term and turn the reins over to Boehner. Now I think he'll run for Speaker again because there is no clear succession plan and he'd rather stay than see some people win the spot.
I do not see how he can survive an election in a newly constituted House of Reps.
The best thing he can do is not run, retire in a few months, and give the republican governor of Ohio a chance to appoint a republican to fill the seat for the requisite time before a special or general election.