Posted on 05/29/2014 12:04:23 PM PDT by tcrlaf
Ukraine's armed forces suffered devastating new losses Thursday, underlining the scale of the challenge the country faces in quelling a guerrilla-style insurgency that has proven to be agile and ruthless.
A rebel rocket attack brought down a military Mi-8 helicopter ferrying out troops, including a general, on the outskirts of Slovyansk, killing at least 12 people onboard. SNIP---
The military, police troops, a newly formed National Guard and a number of often unaccountable volunteer battalions are all ostensibly operating under an "anti-terrorism operation," but it is clear communication has been poor. And lack of military prowess among the most freshly minted units often shows.
"As they have gained experience, they are becoming more efficient. But this has been limited by lack of cooperation, organization, and coordination between divisions," said Mykola Sungurovskiy, a defense analyst with the Kiev-based Razumkov Center. "There have been some cases where there was an attack but no reinforcement, or when 30 rebels were killed in one day and yet KAMAZ trucks are bursting across the Ukrainian border from Russia."
Bad coordination was most vividly on display on when insurgents attacked a government checkpoint in the town of Volnovakha on May 23. Aerial reinforcements apparently shot on their own men. Sixteen soldiers died.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
In addition, Al-Jazeera is reporting that Donetsk is now under the control of the Vostok Battalion. http://live.aljazeera.com/Event/Ukraine_liveblog
Rebels in Donetsk haven't been very aggressive, likely because the rebels their wanted to look "reasonable", and that has led to Conflicts within them, especially with the Gorlovka group. Local rebels looting stores and factories in the chaos after the airport fight was likely the last straw.
The Vostok has taken control of the Admin Building, which likely means Bezler is in charge there now.
Note that the second video on Al Jazeera’s blog of the chopper being shot down IS NOT FROM UKRAINE.
It is from Syria.
It’s early in the game. We’ll see if the Moscow troops still have any fight left after 10K are sent home in body bags.
Yes, I’m surprised they didn’t learn their lesson after getting their butts kicked in Crimea by the Crimean Tatars.
“I still haven’t figured out who to be rooting for in this situation.”
And that is the heart of the problem, isn’t it?
Actually, we'll find out if Russia is ready for a rerun of the casualties they suffered in Chechnya. x10.
“Actually, we’ll find out if Russia is ready for a rerun of the casualties they suffered in Chechnya. x10.”
uhhh...
I don’t know if anyone told you, but the Chechens in Ukraine all seem to be fighting for the rebellion.
Not a surprise. The Brits overran the Gurkha and the Sikh empires. After defeating them, they recruited vast numbers into Gurkha and Sikh units for their colonial armies, and both distinguished themselves in battle on the Western Front during WWI. Similarly, the Russians recruited heavily among the Cossacks after defeating them. Probably figured that idle hands are the Devil's workshop.
You seem to take great pride in the Chechens. What are you more proud of: Beslan or Boston?
I could multiply the atrocities of the Chechens a thousandfold, and it would not come close to the atrocities directly carried out or abetted by the Russians (~100m dead). Anyone who helps the Russians to realize the error of their ways ought to be at least a temporary ally of these United States. If we could ally with the mass-murdering Russians to beat Germany during WWII, there's very little we can't do.
The reference to the Chechens had to do with the significant casualties they inflicted on the Russians despite the postage stamp size of Chechnya (7k sq miles compared to Ukraine’s 250K) and its roughly 1m population (compared to Ukraine’s 50m). Assuming Ukrainians can work up the motivation, they should be able to inflict at least 10x the casualties that the Chechens inflicted on the Russians.
I'm sure Russian casualties were non-trivial, but it's not like the Russians were keeping count and broadcasting them. Still, the atrocities carried out against the Chechens make Beslan look like trivial:
It was initiated on October 13, 1943, when about 120,000 men were moved into Checheno-Ingushetia, supposedly for mending bridges. On February 23, 1944 (on Red Army Day), the entire population was summoned to local Party buildings where they were told they were going to be deported as punishment for their alleged collaboration with the Germans. The inhabitants were rounded up and imprisoned in Studebaker trucks manufactured in and supplied by the United States, before being packed into unheated and uninsulated freight cars.[13][14] Some 40% to 50% of the deportees were children.[15]
Many times, resistance was met with slaughter, and in one such instance, in the aul of Khaibakh, about 700 people were locked in a barn and burned to death by NKVD General Mikheil Gveshiani, who was praised for this and promised a medal by Beria. Many people from remote villages were executed per Beria's verbal order that any Chechen or Ingush deemed 'untransportable should be liquidated' on the spot.[16] An eyewitness recalled the actions of the NKVD forces:[17]
A lot more Russians would have to die at Chechen hands to even up the score.
They combed the huts to make sure there was no one left behind... The soldier who came into the house did not want to bend down. He raked the hut with a burst from his submachine gun. Blood trickled out from under the bench where a child was hiding. The mother screamed and hurled herself at the soldier. He shot her too. There was not enough rolling stock. Those left behind were shot. The bodies were covered with earth and sand, carelessly. The shooting had also been careless, and people started wriggling out of the sand like worms. The NKVD men spent the whole night shooting them all over again. Throughout the North Caucasus, about 700,000 (according to Dalkhat Ediev, 724,297,[18] of which the majority, 479,478, were Chechens, along with 96,327 Ingush, 104,146 Kalmyks, 39,407 Balkars and 71,869 Karachays). Many died en route, and the extremely harsh environment of exile (especially considering the amount of exposure) killed many more. The NKVD, supplying the Russian perspective, gives the statistic of 144,704 people killed in 1944-1948 alone (death rate of 23.5% per all groups), though this is dismissed by many authors such as Tony Wood, John Dunlop, Moshe Gammer and others as a significant understatement.[19] Estimates for deaths of the Chechens alone (excluding the NKVD figures), range from about 170,000 to 200,000,[20][21][22][23] thus ranging from over a third of the total Chechen population to nearly half being killed in those 4 years alone (rates for other groups for those four years hover around 20%). Certain modern Russian sources, however, dispute that there were deliberately harsh conditions set for Chechens as opposed to other nationalities, and point to population growth in the 1959 census.[24]
Just breaking:
A heavy fight going on near Oleksandrivsk, in Lugansk. A National guard unit is surrounded by rebels.
In addition, there was HUGE explosion in Lugansk at the National Guard base, during a fight when a rebel RPG hit an Ammunition storage building. Rebels now claim to have complete control of the base. Reports are of numerous casualties.
Important to note that Kiev has stopped releasing casualty figures, unless the incident and deaths are impossible not to acknowledge, like the widely distributed video of the helicopter crash.
But that's the main problem. The Ukrainian armed forces have been so gutted by demobilization, budget cuts, desertions, poor morale, etc., that it's going to be tough if not outright impossible to put down this kind of rebellion across that large of an area. If they had effective airpower, an intelligence infrastructure, well led troops, etc., they might be able to come out on top. I'm skeptical that Ukraine will be able to weather this crisis.
And surprisingly well supplied with material not normally available to an "insurgent" force.
It's kinda like the situation in Syria. There is no "good guy."
“And surprisingly well supplied with material not normally available to an “insurgent” force.”
The rebels have captured/bought from the Ukrainian Army a TON of equipment. Also. units that have defected have brought APC’s late-model equip etc.
The biggest thing though, is the rebs have control of the largest Soviet-Era Infantry Weapons storage facility in Europe, and have had since March.
Google the Volodarsky Salt Mine, near Slavyansk
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