“falling overseas oil production almost balances rising US oil production.”
Basic economics with demand first and then supply.
“falling overseas oil production almost balances rising US oil production.”
Basic economics with demand first and then supply.
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short term prices are unpredictable. However, options prices can be a useful barometer. This is the way that EIA shows how the probability range for oil prices has risen over the last year in terms of option price volatility spreads.
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“Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices could differ significantly from the forecast levels (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). WTI futures contracts for August 2014 delivery, traded during the five-day period ending May 1, 2014, averaged $99/bbl. Implied volatility averaged 17%, establishing the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market’s expectations of monthly average WTI prices in August 2014 at $85/bbl and $115/bbl, respectively. Last year at this time, WTI for August 2013 delivery averaged $93/bbl and implied volatility averaged 22%. The corresponding lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval were $77/bbl and $113/bbl. “
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm