Last time I checked, panels were about a buck a watt. Electricity is 12-14 cents around here and panels have a 20% duty cycle in summer, less in winter. Assuming that comes to 2kWh per year for each $1 of panel, that's 7 years at least to break even, probably more like 10.
Which is why I excluded my A/C in the summer and stated "almost off-grid." If I threw the A/C into the mix I'm betting you're right (or the payback's even longer ....)
My saving grace here in the winter is I heat my home with a woodburner w/convection action built into it. My furnace is primarily backup, so our electrical usage in the winter is pretty low. One TV, one Refrigerator, computer and some lights (which I'm always yelling at the kids to turn off.)