For now I like this.
Given my druthers, I’d druther, high US production rate increases and high US gas prices over.
Over slightly lower gas prices and much lower US oil production rate increases.
The reason for this is that high US production rate increases are saving the US dollar and keeping the US economy afloat during the Obama business disaster years.
The every extra year of high prices allows more fracking to go on the the fracker to chisel down their costs.
In three or four years —when US production rates are 5 million barrels@ day higher and the USA is oil independent....and the frackers have got their costs30% lower ...that’s the time to lower prices.
Of course, I have no clue as to what will happen but judging by the steep incline of Chinese consumption—it looks like there will be plenty of new demand to soak up extra supply.
check out nascarnation’s graph above of rising Chinese oil demand.
Never mind India or fast rising demand from the rest of the world — that Chinese demand curve alone is almost sufficiently steep over the next five years —to soak up extra north american supply.
Now its likely that the 5-10 years from now the chinese will have figured out how to bring volume production of natural gas online. and the first inroads of natural gas trains buses trucks plus electric cars will start. But that’s all past 2020.
Meaning that there is good evidence that even without disruptions— prices will stay high for the next couple years.
That makes sense.