Ethnic Russians represent a majority in three eastern Ukraine provinces. They would support independence and, likely, integration into the Russian Federation. Russian tactical support would just be icing on the cake. Putin is playing from popular, demographic strength.
Putin is playing from popular, demographic strength.
You have your facts wrong. There have been polls showing only 1/3 of the people in E. Ukraine supported the idea of joining Russia. After all the terrorism by pro-Russians it’s has to be even less. There was a separatist rally today in Kharkiv and hardly anybody showed up. The people in E. Ukraine are definitely unhappy but there is simply no evidence a majority want to join Russia. They are voting with their feet now and staying out of the streets.
Putin does not have popular support in E. Ukraine and his only option left is invasion. Economic warfare will just piss off the Germans and his potential support base in E. Ukraine.