I bet it will be a 5-4 decision.
I think we all know how wise Latina, the ACLU rep on the Supreme Court, etc. will vote.
It will all come down to Roberts and Kennedy, as to whether they think the federal government exceeded authority.
From what I understand, the actual text of the law refers to the states administering the law, and providing subsidies. The federal government is not to provide subsidies.
While the text of the law may be clear, I do think it’s likely that the Court will decide that the written text of the law doesn’t matter. I’m cynical enough to think that.
Don’t think it will be 5-4. I think both Roberts and Kennedy will both decide it was a “typo” despite the fact that it was put there deliberately.
I think we all know how wise Latina, the ACLU rep on the Supreme Court, etc. will vote.
Contemporaneous congressional intent is also clear in this case - the provision for federal subsidies was in the draft version, but removed to get the CBO cost under $1T.
That aside, historically with legislation that was highly contentious when passed, the Court generally applies a very literal reading of the text, as opposed to things that passed with broad majorities, where they tend to give more deference to “intent”. Of course, historically we also haven’t had a Court this blatantly politicized.