I radio commentator (former CIA I think) said that Russia could probably take the Ukraine in 3 to 5 days, but then the fun would begin because the Ukrainians are very good at partisan warfare. Another Afghanistan, but with trees to hide among?
Don't we know it, after Afghanistan and Iraq? It's much easier to destroy the organized opposition (the army,) than to defeat the people. This is why I believe that (a) Eastern Ukraine is not ready for taking, and (b) there will be no military conquest. If Eastern provinces are going to be taken, it will be done peacefully. As Maidan events demonstrated, only a ruthless government can survive against the "unarmed opposition" in the streets. If the government doesn't shoot, it will be hunted down and beaten into submission. If the government does shoot, it will be hunted down and killed for that bloodshed. Only the true dictator, like Saddam Hussein, could get out of this situation alive. (Note also that Al Sisi of Egypt did the same trick with machine guns on helicopters. He had to order the streets power-washed after that.) None of that will be allowed to happen in Ukraine, even if there is anyone in Kiev who'd want to get blood on his hands. This means that if Russia sets up large enough protests (which is just a matter of money and planning,) then the Ukrainian government will be unable to do anything about that.
Read yesterday three cities in eastern Ukraine took over parliamentary buildings from police. Also read one city has voted from a self-appointed council to ask russia to send in troops, in order that they may join Russia by May 15. I actually thought putin would invade a little over a week ago. I was wrong, thankfully. Can’t trust obama and his minions to stay out had russia invaded and obama and his minions not staying on the sidelines would not be helpful to the entire region (imho). Thus playing the waiting game on Ukraine is our best move at this point (imho) and allowing Ukraine’s People to make the decisions.