Interesting. I knew that Ukraine has a substantial arms industry of its own, but its all for export. Until now, anyway. Where are those factories located? I’d think they’d be prime targets for Russia to capture, or destroy if capture is not practical.
Strictly speaking, I think you’d have to peel maybe 10 million Russian leaning inhabitants off that 46 million your state, and then another 10 million just to balance against the pro-Russian group, then another 10-20 million unwilling or unable to effectively participate. So that leaves you with maybe 5 million really able to oppose the Russian military in some way. Assuming a 10:1 kill ratio in favor of the Russians, and a 50,000 fatal casualties figure for what the Russian public might support before they cry “no more”, Ukraine might lose half a million killed in a long struggle, before finally throwing off the Russian yoke for good. This is far less than Ukrainian deaths in WW2, but these are still grim, horrifying numbers. Other hardships would be incredible, too.
Are there 5 million Ukrainians willing to fight THAT hard, for a protracted period?
It’s all pure speculation, the enthusiasm may diminish if standoff will continue, so it is really hard to estimate the level of resistance. Russians can’t afford a protracted conflict, so, after initial blitzkrieg with heavy toll on both sides, they will try to settle with limited territorial gains. Once occupied, the territories will be quickly cleansed from any potential insurrectionists.