...”one that will put Putin in Depends for the rest of his life”....
Putin’s already been three steps ahead of all these sanctions no matter how far they go...Made a deal with China who will buy if the prices change or Ukraine shuts his pipelines down...also while all eyes were on Ukraine, Putin made an oil deal in S. America and another in Africa.
Remember, Putin himself makes all the oil deal decisions so he’s ahead of this game currently.
The Oligarchs moved their money long ago to other nations favorable to Putin....so the EU might be biting their nose off if they go too far...he’ll just cut them off entire.
There’s an analysis on the internet that I don’t entirely agree with, in part, because of the magnitude of the prediction. The author predicts the price of oil will fall into the $20 range. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move below $60 to $80/bbl due to our energy independence.
In the recent past the US has consumed 50% of the world’s oil production. We’ve produced half of that domestically. That means 25% of the world’s oil will be left on the table, so to speak, when we achieve full energy independence. Of course the growth of the world’s demand will take part of it.
That much oil overhanging the market limits the ability of traders to exploit incidents to drive pricing. As the glut undercuts the world oil price, those nations requiring money to support domestic programs such as Russia and Iran will have to pump more oil to maintain their income levels. It may not be a race to the bottom but it will destroy OPEC’s ability to price fix as oil exporting nations undercut each other.
Natural gas is slowly cutting into gasoline’s share of the market for vehicle fuel. As an example West Virginia is pursuing a state fleet powered by natural gas. Fueling stations are being built now with some already in operation.
What is happening is a perfect storm that will drastically reduce oil and gas pricing. Russia may be able to avoid some of that by locking in long term contracts. It will still dramatically reduce the 50% contribution to the Russian federal budget.
As a side note, Putin knows he’s in trouble. One of his recent moves was to tell the oligarchs they’ll have to pay more taxes. His only hope is that Obama doesn’t unleash capitalism in the form of natural gas exports on his ass.
While Putin may try to sell oil in South America he’ll be competing with Venezuelan oil we no longer buy. He’ll also be competing against against Brazil who has long been an oil importer but will soon be one of the world’s biggest exporters.
Sooner, or later, Putin is kaputin.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/brazil-to-boost-oil-exports-as-output-triples-iea-says.html