Skip to comments.Top 5 Consequences of Putin's 'Crimea Reset'
Posted on 03/17/2014 10:04:28 AM PDT by Nachum
"We are entering into our renewed relationship with our eyes open," said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton five years ago, before presenting Russia's foreign minister with the infamous bright red "reset" button.
Russia has pushed the "reset" button all right, resetting history and geography to take the Crimea back, while the U.S. and the European Union do virtually nothing. The White House announced Monday morning that President Barack Obama had imposed a set of sanctions on the Russian arms industry and senior Russian officials, but no one close to Russian President Vladimir Putin himself, according to the UK Telegraph.
The weakness of the west in facing the Russian seizure of the Crimea is likely to have a significant geopolitical effect, both in the short term and long term. Here are five of the most likely consequences of the :Crimea reset":
1. China advances claims over territory and airspace. An aggressively nationalist China was already moving to broaden its air defenses and its claims to the Senkaku Islands, despite U.S. plans to "pivot" from the Middle East to the western Pacific. It will now be even more assertive, knowing there are few consequences.
2. Al Qaeda steps up its attempts to create an Islamic caliphate. The Obama administration, having dispatched Osama bin Laden, has left Al Qaeda to expand across Africa and the Middle East. Those hoping to establish an Islamic state in the ruins of Syria and Iraq will be encouraged by the failure of the west to defend the sovereignty of Ukraine, because the artificial borders of the Middle East seem even more vulnerable now.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Crimea Nationalizes Energy Companies
Thanks for the link, no surprises there.
“5. Russia continues to challenge U.S. allies and create crisis. The Crimea crisis is hardly over, and may reach other parts of Ukraine, as well as NATO allies in Eastern Europe, as Putin tries the same trick again. He is also expanding Russian influence into Latin America. He will only stop when the U.S. stops retreating from any possible confrontation, and commits military resources to stopping his advance. That point is still very far away.”
Vladimir Putin will make a wrong move as he becomes overly assertive. Most Americans know nothing about Russian history viz a viz Islam. The Russians only recently, in historic terms, seized control of Crimea from the Ottoman Empire. They had built extensive naval facilities there and perceive the need to once again assert control there. Taking control of Crimea at this time, especially with Russian-Muslim relations in flux, could be viewed as defensive; if he moves against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, then he will have made a wrong move. That is when Europe, especially Germany, Poland, and the Scandinavian nations, become militarized. This time, IMHO, they will know what to do against an over-assertive Russia.
Were it not not for Putin’s distaste for Islam, I would opine that Obama and Putin were working together and Obama was providing theater to make it look like they opposed each other. I say that because a lot of what Obama has done has played directly in favor of Putin, starting with the removal of the missile shield in Eastern Europe. Sabotaging the victory in Iraq and the war effort/ aftermath in Afghanistan also favored Putin, but Obama pulled those strings for the Muzzies. The result in Egypt was similar.
I think Syria was a turning point for the Putin/Obama relationship. Obama wanted to take down Assad for the benefit of Islamists. He was going to pull off some kind of attack, but the blowback he got and decision NOT to act made Putin take notice. I would bet my bottom dollar we have the Crimea situation BECAUSE of Obama’s actions in Syria. Putin is not finished.
With Obama, it seems to me that only his love of Islam trumps his Marxist ideolgy. Because of that, I think we risk war on some level with Russia, because Putin is very hard on Muslims. When Putin picks on Muzzies again, look for Obama to use our military to fight for his Muzzie friends. . . . IMHO
It's only a 3-mile gap, but there's no bridge, so the land route from Russia to Crimea goes through Ukraine.
Without the bridge, Crimea is disconnected from Russia like East Prussia was from Germany in 1920s and '30s.
This could put the breaks on the greening of EUrope.
"Nevermind that s---, here comes Putin."
Bingo. That's 100x more a factor than any "Nazi" influence in Ukraine or need to protect ethnic Russians (most though not all of which is Russian propoganda.)
Unfortunately, the article in its attempt to make concise points, does not fully connect the dots / project logically further into the future: The US’ weakness and unwillingness to provide a defensive umbrella for allies will force those allies to arm, in some cases with nuclear arms. Yet others will arm in kind or response. I could be wrong about the timing, but I figure on at least a medium size nuclear war, say, around 100 warheads involved, by 2050 or so.
More immediately, if the situation in Ukraine gets worse, and gas supplies are interrupted, Europe could have a very deadly winter of 2015. This should result in efforts toward energy independence, as mentioned, but it could also result in efforts to work with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to develop the huge gas reserves there and build pipelines to Europe, which pipelines themselves will be a huge security risk. Iran of course will use its even larger reserves as a lever to peel off Euro support for sanctions intended to slow down its nuclear program.
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