No, I’m not saying that at all. I think people’s votes in these polls reflect their individual forecasts of the likely near-term future. Few of them think (at this point) that Sarah will run. I believe the poll votes would shift dramatically in Palin’s favor if there were strong evidence that she was planning to.
I disagree. Palin, if she announces, will be fighting for the conservative wing. Cruz and Paul already have their supporters locked. Palin may pick some support up from the Perry or Huckabee or Santorum supporters should any of those men not run, or run and drop out. But she's trailing the big two right now and an announcement won't change that.