“Wall Street” in this case is “consensus estimate” of hundreds of economists. Some of them work for Wall Street firms. Some of them work for companies (FDX has a chief economist). Some of them work for universities. NASDAQ and NYSE have economists. It’s not a bunch of traders “making up numbers” and it’s averaged to smooth out the variances in forecasting methodologies.
As someone who does forecasting for a living, the one thing I always know for sure about my forecast is that it’s wrong.
Have you ever studied University Economics by Alchian & Allen?
They make the correct argument that economics can only tell you the consequences of certain policies or conditions. It cannot tell you what is desirable. Its forecasting abilities are limited given the complexities of a 16 trillion dollar economy.
That’s why Chile did so well under the Chicago Boys. They taught Pinochet the correct policy. The people did the rest.
- SOLUTION :
- Call yourself a “Futurist” and open a cold beer……..