[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

That’s why I read Zerohedge with a grain of salt. I seen something the other day that I believe said the S&P is up 170% over the last five years. A real Guru would have been advising to be in the market all that time and then tell you just before it crashed now is the time.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

I just looked and the S&P was up 140%. That 172 must have been an average of the Dow, S&P and the Nasdaq (which is up over 200% during that time).

[expat_panama]

"A real Guru would have been advising to be in the market ..."

Publishers hire Gurus who sell magazines, being right doesn't end up being a factor.  That said, we got to accept that things are what they are and like it or not doom'n'gloomers tend to win arguments even while optimists get rich.  Now if only I could be better at saying one thing while doing another I'd be both rich and popular.

[AK_47_7.62x39]

One of the reasons gloom and doom is popular is that it is quicker to make big money, and therefore attracts the speculator. Markets go down far quicker and with far more punch than they go up, usually. People who are on the right side of a serious deep correction can make a LOT of money in a hurry. The problem is that it is still base hits that win ball games. If I could accurately time the events that cause everyone to put down their drinks and rush wild eyed from the cocktail party screaming "FIRE FIRE!" then I would not need to trade, I could just sell news letters (hint, hint). Here is a note I made to a friend who is a fledgling hedge fund manager :

Fact is, though, almost no one makes those kinds of calls (shorting the mortgage market in fall 2008). Instead, I shorted Citi from 20 to 16, the dollar /yen from 84 to 78, BAC for 3 dollars, and another mortgage company from 20 down to 12. Not huge trades, but it was a string of winners. I can't retire on them, but they were good, healthy, trades.

My biggest mistake trading over the years has been to try to "FORCE" these trades because I want to be the guy who hit the home run. At age 58, I have concluded that I am not a home run hitter. I do make base hits, though when I WAIT FOR THE PITCHES.

If there is anything I could tell young guys entering the market is is not to get drunk on successful trades, in that you don't try to push them too far. Leave money on the table. Second is don't try to anticipate the big moves. Let it show you rather than you trying to argue with the market, because you will wind up giving away your money too many times that way.