My belief (and my more than modest-sized bet) is that NG will fall significantly towards the spring. Painful in the interim, yes.
I agree natgas price will fall in the spring injection season. Lessons learned from the last couple price cycles and the many wells choked back from full potential will moderate radical price swings up and temper sustained $5+/mmscf this time around. There is a floor to storage though that if exceeded, storage reservoirs get damaged by water influx. The gas storage operators might be getting close to risking decreased future capacity or higher injection costs if they pull it too down too low. I don’t know what that bottom storage level number is. EIA spreadsheet does not go back long enough to really see any consistent absolute bottom line.
Resource re-allocation to oil and rich gas with liquid yield basins might prevent the level of replacement well drilling in the dry gas basins to make up the need. $4 floor in 2014? maybe.
My employer’s analysts more often get it wrong than right. They are saying price will not make a serious rebound anytime soon, not in 2014 anyway. $6 today is already a major rebound, if followed by a $4 summer floor, it’s definitely a solid bump from $2-$3.50 for years.