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shell put out a graph a couple months back which showed they expected oil demand to rise until 2030 and then shrink there after.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Look-At-Shells-Future-Energy-Predictions.html

I think what shell is talking about currently is that there is a steadily rising demand for oil as a transportation fuel with nothing ready to supplant it. even in the face of rising US supply—the world’s ability to keep up with demand will barely be enough. I think what has been freaking out the majors (oil companies like exxon shell chevron) recently has been graphs floating around—I can’t find them right now. but the graphs show how much it cost to extract new oil in the 1990’s vs the last 5 years. the price difference is pretty staggering. I don’t know whether this is an oil majors problem or an industry problem. certainly the oil majors have not been major beneficiaries of the US fracking revolution—though they have been able to buy their way into new positions recently.

However the high price of oil invites competitor transportation fuels—like natural gas for trucks and buses and electricity for cars. Both have seen double and triple digit growth in the last two years. Since that growth comes off a small base — its not meaningful now and even at high rates of growth —won’t be meaningful until at least sometime in the 2020’s.

Further it will take at least five years for US fracking technology to make for meaningful volume oil/natural gas production overseas. But that is coming. The chinese have recently announced the discovery of a giant natural gas field. There are countries all over the world with big shale gas & oil deposits. some will be more costly to extract than others.