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It's 'Disturbing' How Fast The Unemployment Rate Is Falling
BI ^ | 2-7-2014 | Rob Wile

Posted on 02/07/2014 12:07:28 PM PST by blam

It's 'Disturbing' How Fast The Unemployment Rate Is Falling

Rob Wile
Feb. 7, 2014, 10:50 AM

Yikes.

The unemployment rate is falling really fast.

This morning, we learned it had declined to 6.6% — the 23rd-straight month without an increase. As Brooking's and UMichigan's Justin Wolfers observes, the rate has dropped 1.3% over the past year — an insane acceleration from 2012's decline of just 0.3%.

"Only three other times in the past six decades has the unemployment rate fallen this far this fast: in the early 1950s, when growth averaged 6.7% per annum; in the late 1970s when GDP growth averaged 4.8%, and in the mid-1980s when growth averaged 5.2%," said Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg to the U.S. Senate Budget Committee earlier this week.

In those other three instances, growth was robust. This time around, he says, we should probably be concerned about what's causing the plunge.

"Today we accomplished this feat with only 2.4% growth which is disturbing because it means that it is not taking much in the way of incremental economic activity to drain valuable resources out of the labor market," Rosenberg continued.

(snip)

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; employment; jobs; unemployment; unemploymentgraph
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1 posted on 02/07/2014 12:07:28 PM PST by blam
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To: blam
Something is being cooked..
2 posted on 02/07/2014 12:09:20 PM PST by GraceG
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To: blam

Just a guess here, but maybe its the deceptive manner in which the government quantifies the unemployment rate.


3 posted on 02/07/2014 12:11:05 PM PST by skeeter
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To: GraceG

The Democrats aren’t celebrating because they are trying to extend unemployment benefits.


4 posted on 02/07/2014 12:11:09 PM PST by AppyPappy (Obama: What did I not know and when did I not know it?)
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To: blam

Easy when you stop counting those who have given up or accepted a part time gig.


5 posted on 02/07/2014 12:12:23 PM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: blam

When you change the way you count, you change the result. Amazing.


6 posted on 02/07/2014 12:13:50 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (The only way women can "have it all" is if men aren't allowed to have anything.)
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To: blam

My best guess is that the real unemployment rate is about triple what the official number is.


7 posted on 02/07/2014 12:15:27 PM PST by TheGipperWasRight
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To: GraceG

Anyone that gets a check is”employed!”


8 posted on 02/07/2014 12:15:32 PM PST by Dr. Ursus
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To: Resolute Conservative

“Many have given up” ... is a myth. They simply ran out of unemployment benefits and are no longer counted as unemployed even though they are. But most have NOT given up.


9 posted on 02/07/2014 12:16:08 PM PST by clamper1797 (Evil WILL flourish when good men WILL not act)
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To: blam

What’s disturbing to me is why this guy (Rob Wile) can’t figure it out.

The rate isn’t dropping... They just re-defined unemployment. It’s no longer tied to the employment rate.


10 posted on 02/07/2014 12:16:49 PM PST by babygene ( .)
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To: GraceG

Absolutely, gotta put on a really big show for the 2014 elections, then on to the coronation of the shrillary in 2016. This will guarantee the total destruction of the American Experiment.

Gonna be ‘popcorn fodder’ to watch the wench trying to come off as more conservative than 0.......

KYPD


11 posted on 02/07/2014 12:18:03 PM PST by petro45acp (It's a fabian thing.....how do you boil a frog? How's that water feelin right about now?)
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To: clamper1797

True.


12 posted on 02/07/2014 12:18:39 PM PST by Resolute Conservative
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To: blam

Yes, it is disturbing. Because the REASON it is falling is because people are not finding jobs and DROPPING OUT of the work force.

Obama is ruining America— a symptom of our godless morality.


13 posted on 02/07/2014 12:19:28 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: skeeter

I think we have a winner!


14 posted on 02/07/2014 12:21:49 PM PST by WayneS (Respect the 2nd Amendment; Repeal the 16th (and 17th))
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To: blam

Here in Maryland, back when Martin O’Malley became the mayor of Baltimore, the homicide rate fell drastically when the police failed to report instances of people killing other people.


15 posted on 02/07/2014 12:22:59 PM PST by incredulous joe ("No road is too long with good company" Turkish Proverb)
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To: blam
I was wondering why there's partying in the streets everywhere I go. </s>

Hap-py Days are Here Ag-ain! The Skies A-bove are Clear A-gain! ...

16 posted on 02/07/2014 12:25:39 PM PST by The Duke ("Forgiveness is between them and God, it's my job to arrange the meeting.")
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To: skeeter
Just a guess here, but maybe its the deceptive manner in which the government quantifies the unemployment rate.

Bingo. It is precisely that. The only measure of unemployment worth looking at is Per Cent of Population Employed:



You'll note there is not any good news in that.

17 posted on 02/07/2014 12:25:46 PM PST by Paine in the Neck (Our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor)
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To: TheGipperWasRight
My best guess is that the real unemployment rate is about triple what the official number is.

6.6 * 3 = 19.8, a much more reasonable rate.
I'd thought the real rate was closer to 25%; then I saw the following:

And Mr. Marotta calculates it as 37%.

18 posted on 02/07/2014 12:26:51 PM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: blam

Typical Business Insider cheering squad propaganda for the O administration. (A very interesting website with some of its articles, but they are mixed in with propaganda items...caveat!).

So anyway, the answer to “unemployment rate dropping too fast” ... is for Obama to just slow down (if he can) the lies about the economy. SUCH AS, in this particular, put all the millions of unemployed American workers BACK INTO the “labor force” statistic.... COUNT all the people who’ve lost their jobs these past 5 years......instead of pretending they don’t exist.

INSTANT correction, the reported “unemployment rate” goes up to 15 or 20 or 25 percent to more accurately reflect the reality of life today


19 posted on 02/07/2014 12:27:32 PM PST by faithhopecharity (C?d)
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To: blam

There are lies, there are damned lies, and there are statistics.

Can’t remember who it was that said that.


20 posted on 02/07/2014 12:27:59 PM PST by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: blam

Lib relative wailed on FB that her UE benefits weren’t being extended because of the “evil Republicans.” She went out an applied for jobs and got one within two weeks. Never let people get comfortable in their poverty. If she hadn’t been cut off, she would never have looked for a job.


21 posted on 02/07/2014 12:28:05 PM PST by informavoracious (Open your eyes, people!)
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To: blam

Still throwing out this BS are they? The number’s not falling. What’s disturbing is the amount of folks that have just given up. They’ve stopped looking. They’ve stopped collecting unemployment. They’ve basically removed themselves from the workforce.


22 posted on 02/07/2014 12:28:59 PM PST by al_c (Obama's standing in the world has fallen so much that Kenya now claims he was born in America.)
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To: blam

An issue we should all get behind is to change the rules for how government computes all this stuff.
IOW we should not factor in those who are no longer in the labor force because they could not get a job for a year or so.

We should revise the way our government does its accounting.
Maybe back to the way it used to be so that there are no automatic budget increase
This alone would make reality more readily available and would stop the slide into socialism


23 posted on 02/07/2014 12:34:51 PM PST by woofie
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To: F15Eagle

Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli, both have claim to versions of that.


24 posted on 02/07/2014 12:40:13 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (H.L. Mencken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.")
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To: SoFloFreeper

Maybe it has to do with the 1.3 million who just disappeared from extended UI. They have just vanished from the workforce.


25 posted on 02/07/2014 12:41:36 PM PST by BillM (.)
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To: blam

26 posted on 02/07/2014 12:41:56 PM PST by dead (I've got my eye out for Mullah Omar.)
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To: blam

So, no more Leftist calls for unemployment benefits to be extended, I presume?


27 posted on 02/07/2014 12:43:00 PM PST by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Paine in the Neck

You are correct. The Labor Participation Rate is the only true measure. “Unemployment” of the kind that was reported today as 6.6% is the most overcooked number on the planet. If it was pasta it would have dissolved into a mush many years ago.


28 posted on 02/07/2014 12:43:05 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (H.L. Mencken: "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.")
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To: blam
Last month, I talked briefly with a hardworking young college student who held three (3) part-time jobs to support himself through his studies.

My guess is that the BLS would classify this as 3 people employed.

I also suspect that other creative ways exist to over-report jobs. (Just guessing that labor unions and govt contractors might merit special scrutiny, here.)

.

29 posted on 02/07/2014 12:44:31 PM PST by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: dead; Cyber Liberty

A double thank you.


30 posted on 02/07/2014 12:45:04 PM PST by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: blam

Yet, according to the WSJ: “Although the economy is improving and the unemployment rate is falling, 17% of working-age men weren’t working in December. More than two-thirds said they weren’t looking for work, so the government doesn’t label them unemployed.”


31 posted on 02/07/2014 12:48:19 PM PST by Atlas Sneezed ("Income Inequality?" Let's start with Washington DC vs. the rest of the nation!)
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To: Resolute Conservative
Easy when you stop counting those who have given up or accepted a part time gig.

Just wait until a Republican is elected in 2014, and the unemployment will soar like an eagle.

32 posted on 02/07/2014 12:53:55 PM PST by Arrowhead1952 (The Second Amendment is NOT about the right to hunt. It IS a right to shoot tyrants.)
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To: OneWingedShark
OUCH! ..if that became widely known, a complete meltdown of the 'RAT Party
but, 50+% are complete morons.

33 posted on 02/07/2014 12:56:20 PM PST by skinkinthegrass (The end move in politics is always to pick up a gun..0'Caligula / 0'Reid / 0'Pelosi)
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To: blam

I wish MSM would just once look into this. Actually do some journalism instead of gulping down the numbers fed to them by our lying government.


34 posted on 02/07/2014 1:03:43 PM PST by vpintheak (Thankful to be God blessed & chosen!)
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To: Dr. Ursus

Ah, the great Unemployed Employed


35 posted on 02/07/2014 1:11:51 PM PST by GraceG
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To: blam

How many of the “jobs” created in the last two years are part-time??


36 posted on 02/07/2014 1:18:57 PM PST by rusty schucklefurd
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To: GraceG

These numbers are a lie. Real unemployment is at Depression levels, nearly 20%. That does not even take into consideration all the people who have to work multiple part-time jobs because various government disincentives and bad economic policy discourage the creation of full time positions.


37 posted on 02/07/2014 1:21:33 PM PST by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters for Freedom and Rededication to the Principles of the U.S. Constitution)
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To: blam
People are discovering the wonderfulness of not being "job-locked" and are not even looking.

Obama and Obamacare have released thousands from the drudgery of having to work!

Now excuse me while I go back to the factory to put in a double, to help pay for it all...

38 posted on 02/07/2014 1:24:41 PM PST by grobdriver (Where is Wilson Blair when you need him?)
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To: blam

Disturbing? Really?

Its not disturbing. Its par for the course with the lying crap bastards in the gov’t and their puff pimps in the MSM.


39 posted on 02/07/2014 1:24:45 PM PST by Rich21IE
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To: clamper1797
But most have NOT given up.

How do you know?

40 posted on 02/07/2014 1:43:47 PM PST by TigersEye (Stupid is a Progressive disease.)
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To: blam

41 posted on 02/07/2014 1:46:58 PM PST by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: blam

The difference, of course, is that in past recoveries, people moved back into the labor market as unemployment fell, reducing the drop in unemployment. People are still dropping out of the labor market now.


42 posted on 02/07/2014 1:48:05 PM PST by dangus
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To: clamper1797
They simply ran out of unemployment benefits and are no longer counted as unemployed even though they are.

That is not how people are counted as unemployed.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed

43 posted on 02/07/2014 1:49:35 PM PST by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: skeeter

Ya think? I agree with you. It’s all a great big sham.

We have close to 25% of our workforce sitting idle, and they have the nerve to claim we have 6 something unemployment.

Why don’t the Republicans make a big stink out of that? There’s so much fertile ground here and they act as if explaining what Obama isn’t doing, is going to cost them.

I’d start coming up with full employment legislation, and dare the idiot to refuse to sign it. That’s how you set up victory. Our clowns prove over and over that they’re just that.

When have we had more fertile grounds for contrasting the Republican party as better than the Democrats on program after program.

Boehner can’t think of one program to highlight in that manner.

Instead he’s stuck on proving both parties want the same exact ill-advised things.

(Steam coming out of my ears...)


44 posted on 02/07/2014 1:50:56 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Amnesty is job NONE! It isn't even the leading issue with Hipanics.)
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To: blam

And the market made gains on the basis of this phony report!


45 posted on 02/07/2014 1:53:37 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: blam
Simple Communist calculation.

Similar to: It is not who votes that count but who counts the vote. One of those great Marxists said something like that.

46 posted on 02/07/2014 1:55:35 PM PST by mosaicwolf (Strength and Honor)
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To: clamper1797

Yes. That always gets me.

How do you give up looking for a job? I mean, does one decide to live in boxes and give up eating instead?


47 posted on 02/07/2014 2:02:47 PM PST by Age of Reason
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To: blam

Ahhhhbulllllchit!


48 posted on 02/07/2014 2:04:27 PM PST by Sequoyah101
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To: blam
Wow. All these unemployed getting new, full time, well-paying, satisfying jobs!

Man, oh, man, is this economy roaring along, or what!!??

There's so much economic gravy floating around here we should probably import about 30 million or so more illiterate immigrants so they can take up all the slack in all those extra jobs nobody wants or needs. Great idea. What could be better then that?

Our jobs machine can fuel the world!

49 posted on 02/07/2014 2:23:21 PM PST by Gritty (Inside every liberal is a totalitarian screaming to get out! - David Horowitz)
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To: clamper1797

Yep. Anyone who doesn’t continue to check in with the state Employment Development Department (here in CA anyway) after their unemployment runs out is counted as not looking anymore. Why would they?


50 posted on 02/07/2014 2:42:28 PM PST by Hugin
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