What’s really going on out there? The numbers make no sense. We are dropped precipitously to 6.7% with essentially no job growth. The population is growing faster in December than the job increase.
I understand all the discussion we’ve had about people leaving the workforce and/or going to disability...and I get that. but even accounting for that, I don’t see how we could see that kind of drop. In my personal look around, I am not seeing anyone in my friend circle without a job, like a few years ago, but I do know a number of people doing worse than 5 years ago. It is really hard to figure out what’s going on out there with these numbers.
If the denominator declines and the numerator stays flat the percentage declines. That’s the point of the labor force participation rate.
One of the structural issues with the labor force participation rate is demographics. Baby boomers are retiring. The rate has been declining since the late 90’s (i.e. this is nothing new).
There are, of course, issues with job growth that are impacting the participation rate.
The numbers, like the homo %age of the pop, the inflation rate, are to influence the stupid. Period. You can not trust anything this bunch says about anything. Period.