Posted on 11/03/2013 8:09:42 PM PST by Kenny
SPOTSYLVANIA, Va.—In politics, it is generally not a good omen when a candidate’s supporters argue that he still has a chance of victory — if the opponent’s supporters neglect to vote.
But this was Virginia Republican Chairman Pat Mullins’s version of the power of positive thinking in an interview this weekend. The path for star-crossed GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli, Mullins said, looks like this: “If turnout is in the 30s, the low 30s, we’re gonna win. If it gets higher up in Fairfax [in Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia], say like 40, it’s likely we won’t. I don’t think it’s going to hit 40 anywhere. I’m looking at 32.”
This valiant effort at optimism is the kind of thing a campaign does in the closing hours when it becomes enveloped with an unmistakable stench of impending doom.
Almost anyone who has been around politics for long in either party knows the feeling. The heart demands a cheerful, resilient sprint to the finish. The brain, which has internalized the polls and analyzed the crowds, knows there is virtually no rational reason for cheer.
Listen to the talking points from the Cuccinelli campaign and its surrogates, and watch their decisions over time and money, and all the signatures of a classic political death march are on bright display.
*The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. True.
*This election belongs to the people, not the pollsters and pundits. True.
*Politics, like the rest of life, is full of surprises. Supremely true.
But the reality — as the political veterans voicing these talking points know better than anyone — is that surprises like the one Cuccinelli needs are rare indeed. The last top-flight poll that had him ahead came out six months ago, although three outliers in the last week showed the race within the margin of error.
And the same depressing polls Cuccinelli publicly dismisses have driven the candidate’s decisions. His strategy for the past couple weeks has been the equivalent of hospice care for a very sick patient. Real efforts at getting well — such as trying to persuade swing voters in the vote-rich Northern Virginia suburbs— have been all but abandoned. The alternative is palliative care, trying to ease the pain and wait for a miracle by focusing the candidate’s time and message on stimulating turnout among the conservative base that is already with him.
“We don’t need to convince one more Virginian, not one,” Cuccinelli told 150 supporters at a weekend rally here. “We just have got to get the ones who already agree with us about ‘first principles’ to the polls on Tuesday. That’s all we’ve got to do to win.”
This mentality is why he’s wrapping up Monday night with Ron Paul, the former Texas congressman who ran three quixotic bids for president, at a rally in Richmond.
As campaigns always do in these circumstances, they grasp desperately to those polls which show the race tightening – even if one of them was conducted by a club of college students in Massachusetts.
And Cuccinelli’s surrogates have added the local twist that Virginia conservatives have treasured for decades: don’t let the liberal Washington Post try to tell us what to do.
“He can be a great governor, but to win we’ve got to defy the odds,” said Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who flew in for two rallies Saturday. “If you listen to the Washington Post, they want you to just sit down and give it up.”
Walker then assured the crowd that the race is tightening.
“The reason it’s getting close is because the voters are looking beyond … what the Washington Post and what the Washington elites say about this state and about this country,” he said.
The candidate himself has tried to keep the mood light with self-deprecating humor. Democrat Terry McAuliffe and his allied outside groups crushed Cuccinelli and his backers by a factor of 25-to-1 in the air war last week.
“If you own a television, you know that,” Cuccinelli joked to supporters. “If you don’t, my opponent will buy you one if you’ll vote for him.”
“I shaved my horns just for you all,” he deadpanned at another stop later.
While Cuccinelli tries to keep his campaign on life support, many people who were never enthusiastic about nominating a zealous social conservative in an increasingly moderate state have been working for weeks on their unflattering obituaries.
I have my own doubts about Ken. others have said he is a worthy conservative, so I will go with that. If I lived there I’d go ahead and vote for him despite my own personal doubts.
But I do want to say this.
If Virginia actually elects his sleazeball just disgusting little piece of human debris McCa$$h*le or whatever his name is, I’d move out of Virginia immediately, because that is absolute proof the state is beyond any hope whatsoever.
It is fairly ridiculous to dismiss the strong polling surge in last week for Cucinelli.
Politico says “outlier” but it is multiple polls and it seems that there are no double digit leads to be found anywhere.
The rather obvious but avoided reality is:
1. ObamaCare is stinking to high heaven
2. McAuwful is attached ferociously to Obamacare.
3. Cucinelli was one of the first major hardcare opponents of the law
The Obamacare death spiral is pulling the democrats down in Virginia.
That terrible sinking feeling when you realize as a Virginia voter that McAwful is probably lying like President Obama did just to be elected.
That kills turnout for Dems and lights a fire under the conservatives.
Politico is the one getting desperate. It is looking bad for them.
cue the purity testers who will claim that cuccinelli is a rino . . . not conservative enough . . . it’s rinos like him that get jagoffs like mcauliffe elected, & etc., etc.
they will spend a great deal of time and effort attacking cuccinelli, when it’s people like mcauliffe that are the enemy
There’s no stench like that of a liberal bathwater-drinking reporter.
Still planning on camping out next to the elementary school to be the first to vote! I’ve never been more excited to vote, and this is a direct result of the cancellation letter from Blue Cross. I can’t be the only one.
Democrat Terry McAuliffe and his allied outside groups crushed Cuccinelli and his backers by a factor of 25-to-1 in the air war last week.It has more to do with money and exposure than ideology.
The Democrats and the GOPe have developed financial backers through years of networking and inside-the-beltway favor trading. Honest conservatives always start out deep in the hole. Only a few manage to overcome such handicaps.
It appears Mr. Cuccinelli will not be one of them. We'll see.
You're absolutely right. The excuses that McAuliffe outspent Cuccinelli or lied aren't good enough. These are adults playing with America's future, picking a candidate like it's Dancing With the Stars.
During all 5 church services this weekend my pastor told thousands of Cuccinelli voters that it’s their civic and biblical duty to go vote for the candidates that most line up with God’s values. I hope they all listen to him and crawl across glass to the polls.
Good for you, camp out and cast your vote. I didn’t post this to tell everyone to give up, just a heads-up on the enemy’s position. I hope all Cuccinelli’s supporters fight like hell. That’s the stuff upsets are made of.
Pray for rain. What’s the weather forecast?
that a little melodramatic, even for politico.
Wow, who wrote this Mcauliffe himself?
Must have been John McCains writer too.
come on Virginia wake up and get out those votes,
don’t let doom and gloomers make you give up til
it’s over.
We all know it’s a long shot, that we are up against
the full force of the machine but they believe their
own propaganda and can be destroyed by the first big
loss. This one could be it, we are seeing a definite
turning on this administration, there IS blood in the
water and when it all starts to unravel it’s time to
feed the sharks.
If ken can take this, it will send a schock through
the rest of the congressional races coming up.
Don’t give up. I want to see those headlines
Democrats in chaos, party divided, lame duck limps on.
President on medication, Sebelious on vacation.
Biden caught in bed with Nanzi Pelosi and a goat.
Things are barely held together in the lashup that
is this administration and when it comes untied
it will be like an avalanche. WATcH for it!
I'll bet 32 degrees will very likely keep those Southern RATs indoors and away from the polls.
factor of 25-to-1 in the air war last week
There is also a negative factor that comes from
the continual drumbeat of ham handed political ads.
People get sick of them and the guy running the
most of them is who they get sick at.
Oh Divine providence, please heal our nation and
preserve us from further “democrat” victorys.
Go Ken, alll the way! Collapse on the OTHER side of
the finish line, right now you have a job to do.
Freepers got your back. Tea power up!
“factor of 25-to-1 in the air war last week”
They aired a great anti McColl-0ff (tired of trying to spell his stupid name) ad today in Richmond during Meet the Press. Said the election should be a referendum on Obamacare. Normally I would never, ever have that on my tv, but I wanted to see the ads.
we're a conservative site....do we really need these leftist political opinions posted here?....seriously...
The money has been amazing. It Ken was hurt by a double-whammy there. First, McDonnell was entirely shut down, because of his own ethical problems. A popular governor campaigning for a logical successor would have put this away, plus he could have raised millions.
Second, Bill Bolling turned traitor because he felt he was deprived of his rightful place. Now, I do think if Bolling had won the nomination, he’d have won easily, and also would have been a decent governor, and probably sufficiently conservative at least since we’d still have house, and the real damage was already done with the transportation bill.
But he couldn’t talk people into showing up at a convention, and instead of working harder, he just quit, then bad-mouthed Ken, and made sure the establishment republicans didn’t give Ken money. The only good thing is that BOlling didn’t actually endorse Terri (although he said some nice things about him, which is absurd because even if you hate Ken, Terri is a sleezeball).
Then throw in that the entire national democratic party needs a victory somewhere, and the Clintons need virginia, and you had a perfect storm where the republicans were split, and the democrats united behind a lousy candidate.
Ken didn’t have the money to counter the lies, and the media for the most part were happy to spread the lies, some going as far as endorsing Terri even though Terri is a known snake-oil salesman who has never shown the ability to run anything except sleezy political campaigns.
They overreact to weather down here like you can’t imagine. If it’s gonna be 32 degrees, they might cancel school.
we’re praying for you guys....some of us have sent money...good luck...and May God be with you and all of us.....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.