Posted on 10/11/2013 6:46:47 AM PDT by Qbert
A sharp reader caught a statistical problem with that much-cited NBC/WSJ poll that shows Republicans are getting whooped in the shutdown:
Tampa @S1CT@texasbryanp In today's NBC/WSJ poll, 1 in 5 respondents work for govt. Only 8% of pop works for govt. See last page.
8:12 - 10 Oct 2013
It’s true. Here is the complete poll with the sample, the questions, etc. On the very last page we get the breakdown of where the 800 respondents work.
The wording of the question is broad enough to sweep in spouses of government workers and other situations in which the respondent themselves may not work for the government in some way, but someone closely related to them does. Oversampling government workers may not always lead to a skewed result — government workers include the bureaucrats we all have in mind here, but also the wife of the local sheriff who’s as conservative as can be. Nevertheless, we do have government workers heavily sampled, by more than twice the actual percentage of Americans who work for the government. Then let’s factor in the poll’s partisan sample, which was 43-32 Democrat, the percent that admits voting for Obama, which was 44 versus just 35 for Romney, and this looks like a left-heavy sample. I’m not screaming UNSKEWED POLLS!!!1!!!1! here, but, it’s questionable. Then, factor in NBC’s role. That network is not to be trusted.
Granted, the country has more dems than repubs, but D+11? Don’t think so... it’s closer to D+6/7.
I enjoyed the “Who did you vote for?” question.
5% said they voted but didn’t know if they voted for Romney or Obama!
As far as entertainment value goes it was a very entertaining poll...
Rigged. No surprise.
Crickets were heard on yesterday's AP poll.
Heh. But could be true. They just rent thier names out to 'Rat poll workers to fill in the votes for them.
Just as I thought.
They might as well have taken the poll in the NYT’s newsroom.
I personally don’t care if the approval rating for Republicans goes to 1%. Fighting against Obamacare is the right thing to do.
I’m sure Patrick Henry’s “Give me liberty or give me death” statement to the Virginia Convention in 1775 raised a few eyebrows of the get-along crowd as well. Sometimes you have to fight the power.
But the 20% Government Worker number may not be as far off as inferred here.
Note that this poll asks if you or a member of your immediate family works for the government. Assuming 8% work for the government then how many have wives, sons or daughters that are "immediate family living with you"?
That figure would certainly be more than 8%. Probably a lot more than 8%. Could it be 20%? Possibly.
shhhh wolf blitzer is still talking about President Bush and his poll numbers
I don’t think 20% “working for government” is skewed at all. There are some counties where most everyone who works works for the government.
FedGov is the nations largest employer, according to Barry.
I agree — not skewed.
My in-laws are all rock solid Dems. There is one government worker, who influences parents, children and siblings.
"Just as I thought.
There are some serious issues here when you have Paul Gigot, head of the WSJ editorial board, meeting secretly with Obama, and then pulling this stunt right after.
Want to know who's really killing the Republican Party? It's the McCain, WSJ, GOP-e members who go out of their way to trash Conservatives any time they sense we're getting more popular support on anything.
Crash McCain quoting the poll on FNC now.
In Broward County Florida the largest employers are county government, school system, sheriff’s office and public hospitals. Private employers lag far behind. Then there are more than 20 cities within the county with their own bureaucracies.
FReepers are the only people left in the USSA with an IQ above 10.
Where is Drudge with his siren alert? This rigged poll is being cited as gospel on all media outlets. The old USSR would have been proud of this propaganda coup.
He who defines first defines best!!
Look, we all know the media kneels at the feet of the Democratic Party, the liberal ideology. They have the power to create any narrative they want or defuse any realities that may be out there. In a battle where it appears they may lose they step it up to give themselves a perception that they can sell to their half of the country....
Remember about 10% on the left, right ever get this involved in politics. They only digest a few headlines and make a quick narrow conclusion. The media knows it.
I have been saying for a decade, the only way to control the message is to get some control or balance of the message service. It is a HUGE feat the Republicans just can not make progress on. Until they do they are somewhat doomed.
That IMO is the real story with many of these polls. Those who don’t approve of the GOP in congress include Democrats—and conservatives (the tea party) tired of the GOPe fecklessness and perfidity!
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