Posted on 09/15/2013 9:41:23 AM PDT by Mrs. Don-o
This was not the headline that the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics gave its recent release of provisional fertility data for 2012. But for the first time, in 2012 Russia’s birth rate actually exceeded that of the United States. This is a significant reversal from the past when the US had a birth rate that was as much as 75% higher than Russia’s. The speed and scale of the convergence is impressive. Since 2008, the Russian birth rate has increased by about 10% while the United States has slumped by about 9%.
[snip]
Essentially, Russian wages have never been higher and unemployment has never been lower. Meanwhile, in the United States, wages are stagnant and unemployment is way above its long-term trend. Economic malaise has had a predictably depressive effect on fertility.
What is not particularly relevant for the discussion are the personalities of Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin... most of the change is due to structural demographic and economic factors that are incredibly difficult to change.
[snip]
But I nonetheless want to highlight the enormous change in relative performance between Russia and the United States because 1) it’s something that’s not well recognized and 2) strongly suggests that Russia is not some bizarre and indecipherable ”dying nation” but is actually dealing with a number of demographic problems that every other advanced country is also dealing with.
A lot of people pointed at Russia’s naturally shrinking population and basically said “what a wretched and awful place: they can’t even maintain their own numbers!” The fact that the white population is now naturally shrinking in the US should hopefully make people just a little less willing to stereotype the Russians and a little more willing to honestly discuss issues of demography by engaging with hard data.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
“but I personally think defunding Planned Parenthood and related American-child-disposal sites could work wonders. “
Yes, there would be some small effect, but people’s behavior adjusts to changing circumstances. For example, photo enforcement for red light runners was supposed to net huge gains. Everywhere they installed these cameras the take was significantly smaller than expected. People adjusted. Here’s the disgusting part. Make abortions unavailable and women will instantly adjust by not getting pregnant. The sexual revolution will be over. They’ll start acting more conservative; not because they want to, but because they have to. I wish we could run the experiment and see.
As I understand it, the only reason that the population of the USA continues to increase is illegal immigration. Absent that, there would be a slow decrease.
The author’s analysis is flawed. TFR is considered vastly superior to crude birth rate by sophisticated demographers.
USA still>USSR
Vlad is doing some things right...
Legitimate young Americans are not having have kids because kids costs a fortune just to deliver....Then house feed, cloth, insure etc...Most these young people in the U.S. today are making 1990s wages with no heath insurance...
The next 10 years are going to be brutal for housing, heath care, pharmaceuticals, boating, insurance...All the big ticket stuff... etc....Simply due to the fact the up coming generations don't and wont' have the flipping money for any of this....
These big industries in the U.S. are going to nose dive in a very big way.
No joke.
Yes. The muslim birth rate is soaring in Russia.
TFR is theoretical - actual birth rates are real data. You can estimate a higher TFR than the actual birth rate by assuming a rebound later. The number of babies BORN is harder to manipulate statistically.
Having practically a generation of men wiped out in World War II, then a demographic implosion in the 1980s-90s, Russia is very aware of demographics and what a healthy birthrate means to the country. They can’t depend on immigration as much as we can. Their stand on gay rights has everything to do with this view as well.
one of the comments>>>>
Yes, Russia is equipped now better to support younger population at the expense of dying out “pensioners”. Natural resources..
Their population still declining (and it would be better Mark if you provided comparison between births per woman graph), but less so and when the generation of 50-60 olds will die out they will have better statistics providing that Russian rulers will be still good Caesars.
USA: Total fertility rate is 2.06 children born/woman (2013 est.)
for whites probably 1.5?
Russia: 1.61 children born/woman (2013 est.) For white Russians probably 1.4? For muslims probably 2.3-2.5
Murad Nabiev 1 month ago
I agree, you forgot to mention who is multiplying so fast in Russia. It’s not Russians, it’s mostly muslim ethnic minorities of Northern Caucasus + immigrants from Southern former soviet republics. As for Russians, they are rapidly decreasing in numbers. You can check statistics for Russian regions and for ethnic minorities regions so you could see what I’m talking about. Plus you are right about short jump up of birth rate due to last numerous generation of 80s is giving birth these days. In few years situation will change dramatically to steady decrease of birthrate and the only surplus will exist from non Russian ethnic groups. What I want to tell that there’s nothing about politics here. It’s not Russian “democracy” or whatever “authoritarian” laws that cause it. It’s muslim population that is multiplying equally fast in any part of the world.
As for US, demographics is the least problem of the country, I don’t even think it’s an issue at all.
My reasons for not having children aren't financial; if I had ever gotten married I suppose I might have felt differently, but I simply have no desire to have kids.
More power to those that do...if my tax dollars aren't subsidizing them!
It may have something to do with this:
You often hear people say they would like to have more children, but they cannot afford it. But people in poorer countries seem to afford large families, even though their real incomes are way lower than ours. Heck, your grandparents (or, for you youngsters, great-grandparents) had 5-7 kids in a family when their incomes, even accounting for inflation, were way lower than ours.
Social security is a big factor. There's a substantial fit, worldwide, between strong SS system = low birthrate, weak SS system = high birthrate. If you foresee that you won't need kids to keep you living decently in your old age, there's little economic incentive to have them. Of course, in the aggregate, we still desperately need those kids anyhow, to pay into this tottery Ponzi-scheme we call a SS system, but nobody thinks much about "the aggregate."
There is a correlation between religiosity and childbearing, too, but --- I am surprised to say this --- not as much as I thought.
I’d love to see Putin’s GDP growth rate compared to the US under Obama. Adjusted for true inflation, of course...
Wasn’t talking about you, but upcoming young Americans in general..Those now in the teens and twenties.
The big majority don’t and won’t have the money for housing, insurance, boats, new cars, homes, vacations, heathcare, etc., etc.
Big time hits to big industries are clearly on the horizon.
Availability of money in the hands of families would go a long way.
The big majority don’t and won’t have the money for housing, insurance, boats, new cars, homes, vacations, heathcare, etc., etc.
I was making the point that such decisions aren't always financial in nature. Even by my twenties, I had the money for housing, insurance, new cars, vacations, healthcare, etc.
I didn't choose not to have children because I couldn't afford them. I just didn't want them. I suspect this is the case for many young people today as well.
That having been said, I'm sure that many young people who choose not to have kids do so for financial reasons, just as you've pointed out.
I seriously disagree with your assessment. Out here in BFE, PA it seems like every female starts breeding at 15. You can tell who they are because they are the same ones with tattoos on their right tit which is, of course, displayed via a low cut top.
Undoubtedly they have birthed 3 offspring from 5 different sires, and are standing in line ahead of you, paying for groceries with a SNAP card, while yacking on her cellphone about her upcoming court appointment to up child support from the latest sperm donator.
While I agree birthrates amongst the 20 to 30 year-old educated middle class demographic is depressed for the reasons of financial and life status insecurities you listed, the entitlement class of welfare receiving, Democrat voter perpetuating breeder sows is still quite fruitful.
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