ADP Payrolls 176K, Small Miss, Pace Of Increase Broken For First Time Since April
BLS numbers are less volatile but subject to significant manipulation (seasonality, birth/death, outright lies, etc.).
I have to think Gallup's numbers are probably the most accurate. The "Payroll to Population" number is one-step a better metric than BLS' Labor Force Participation Rate, and is telling.
All of the numbers show an early slowdown in employment. The drop off usually occurs in October, not August.
We are in a period like the 1930s and 1970s. Lost decades where slow economic growth means the economy never returns to its earlier levels.
“-—like the 30’s and 70’s——” Yeah, in terms of the big numbers that’s about right. But this time the causes are different. Modernization/mechanization/high speed manufacturing are going to take a generation of underskilled/under-educated people out of the workforce. There are only 12 million of us left who actually make a product. And we’re taking jobs back from China with machinery, not cheap labor. I’ve said for a couple decades that we are headed for a 90/10 economy and that’s going to last until the 90% realize they have to get themselves into the 21st century. Example: Just yesterday auto sales were reported up. But leases were up far more than purchases. That’s pathetic because it points to a time when most folks won’t even own their own dam smokemobiles.