If race and ethnicity are determing factors in voting behavior, demographic trends do not appear to bode well for the GOP.
Turnout among black Americans was lower in 2012 than in 2008, despite the great effort the Obama campaign devoted to maximizing it and despite the spontaneous enthusiasm many black Americans feel toward the first black president. Blacks are not growing as a percentage of the population, and it is unlikely that other Democratic nominees can inspire the high turnout proportionate to other groups and the high percentages Barack Obama won in these two elections. The Democratic margin among blacks amounted to 12 percent of the total vote in 2008. It is unlikely to ever be that large again.The Case of the Missing White Voters, RevisitedTurnout among Hispanics did increase from 9 to 10 percent and, contrary to all the other groups here, it increased in absolute numbers as well. It is bound to increase more in future elections inasmuch as about 23 percent of U.S. residents under age 18 are classified as Hispanic — though perhaps not as much as suggested by straight-line extrapolations, since starting in 2007, net immigration from Mexico declined to zero and immigration from other parts of Latin America declined.