The mathematics of using "committed agents" in reversing public opinion

Cornell University Library ^ | April 2011 | various

[Scooter100]

I stumbled across this research paper this morning. Somewhat old, but very interesting. Our tax dollars go towards government research into how they can better bludgeon "proper thinking" into our tired, battered brains. Well, I'm tired of it, anyway.... don't know about you.

Name of the attached paper:  "Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities"  (April 2011).

Written by:  A group of academics representing three departments at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, N.Y.:  Dept. of Computer Science, Dept. of Physics, and the Dept. of Mathematics.

Work Contracted by, and for delivery in April 2011 to: 
    a. The Army Research Laboratory  (Grant #:  W911NF-09-1-0254)
    b. Office of Naval Research  (Grant #:  N00014-09-1-0607)
    c. Both under Cooperative Agreement Number W911NF-09-2-0053

Abstract:   (direct quote from the paper)

We show how the prevailing majority opinion in a population can be rapidly reversed by a small fraction p of randomly distributed committed agents who consistently proselytize the opposing opinion and are immune to influence.  Specifically, we show that when the committed fraction grows beyond a critical value pc ≈ 10%, there is a dramatic decrease in the time, Tc, taken for the entire population to adopt the committed opinion.  In particular, for complete graphs we show that when p < p_c, T_c ∼ exp((p)N), while for p > p_c, Tc ∼ lnN. We conclude with simulation results for Erdos-Renyi random graphs and scale-free networks which show qualitatively similar behavior.

Summary:  (direct quote from the paper)

IV. SUMMARY

"In closing, we have demonstrated here the existence of a "tipping point" at which the initial majority opinion of a network switches quickly to that of a consistent and inflexible minority.  There are several historical precedents for such events, for example, the suffragette movement in the early 20th century and the rise of the American civil-rights movement that started shortly after the size of the African-American population crossed the 10% mark. Such processes have received some attention in sociological literature under the term minority influence [26, 31].  Our motivation here has been to study this process in more detail through semi-analytical methods and simulations for finite-sized and sparse networks, within the realm of a particular social influence model - ' the binary agreement model '.

There are several open questions and extensions of this work that are worth studying, in our opinion:  for example, given a network with non-trivial community structure, what is the optimal scheme for selecting committed agents (for a given committed fraction) that would minimize consensus times, and reduce p_c [the critical committed fraction]?  Secondly, extensions of the model to include utility driven opinion switching by agents may be useful in designing optimal incentive schemes for opinion spreading."

Discussion:

a.  This is a mathematically detailed study in the general field of propaganda.

b.  More specifically, it concerns the dynamics of swaying, and/or reversing, public opinion by the use of "committed agents" (those who will never change their opinion) .

c.  Complex mathematics is used to examine the "binary agreement model", wherein there exist three states (or opinions):  A, B and AB.

d.  The "binary agreement model" is also referred to in the paper as similar to the "voter model".

e.  Attention was specifically focused on the effect that "committed agents" can have on the spreading and changing of public opinion and the time it takes to optimally change that opinion.


Conclusions:

There are only two conclusions that one can make concerning the five "W's" (who, what, when, where, and why) of this paper:

a.  The military is interested in forcing public opinion to a desired outcome, rather than performing optimally in the first place.

or,

b.  The government (Democrats or Republicans [??]) used this military avenue as a guise for obtaining "free" behavioral research toward building a  strategy and process for the 2012 elections.

[SC_Pete]

Communist subversion sponsored by the Army and the Navy.

[Scooter100]

Yes, the “Delphi Technique” is a cornerstone of subversives railroading Agenda 21 issues through local city councils. Very powerful, and virtually unknown to the majority of those who attend city hall meetings. Scary.

[jdege]

or, the military is finally waking up to the fact that the Soviets had been engaged in this practice for many years, and that the front organizations that they established are still engaged in this practice, and is just now trying to understand just how it works.

[Flintlock]

They’ve been at this sh*t since the Paris Commune of the 1870’s.
That is why we call them “Communists”.

Lock and load, boys and girls—the ballot box doesn’t work any more.

[Roccus]

Here it is in action recently

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3043094/posts

[Rich21IE]

ping

[crusader71]

So, can’t we adopt this approach? Turn it back on the communists.

[SE Mom]

I’d say we’re watching this method play out with some success in the hands of lawyers for the family of Trayvon Martin.

In fact, last night on Greta one of those lawyers said what she REALLY does is “social engineering “..

[locountry1dr]

ping

[Roccus]

Due to FReepathon “hiccup”, I’m unable to read through your links.
For those who are interested, here is a link to the original article.

http://www.dailypaul.com/42663/g-edward-griffins-tips-for-delegates

[Scooter100]

I wonder if "social engineering" is on the curriculum now at our best universities? Enough to make one spew lunch.

(By the way, thanks, SE Mom, for raising one of our cherished and brave men/women in arms....I am in awe of what you must go through on a daily basis. Thank you, and God bless!)

[meadsjn]

So, can’t we adopt this approach? Turn it back on the communists.

Is this some new, novel concept, or does it just diagram a process that has long existed?

Samuel Adams, "It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds.

The difference with the liberal agenda is that their proposals produce negative results for the vast majority, so they have to lie and manipulate.

Conservative principles based on individual freedom, common sense, and positive results through constructive effort, do not require dishonesty to sell. We just need to get the message across in spite of the screeching opposition.

[kitchen]

Add the GE Change Acceleration Process to the list.

[Smokin' Joe]

No coincidences...I have seen this and the Delphi technique in action in public meetings. Interesting to note physical placement of proponents and opponents, insiders and ‘outsiders’, and govt. vs those who disagree with policies. Outcomes are commonly a foregone conclusion with a meeting or hearing held to add validity by saying public comment heard, etc.

[Timber Rattler]

Broken link fixed, per #2. Thanks Sidebar Mod!

Original reply: "Old commie tactic..."

HOW COLLECTIVISTS USE THE DIAMOND TACTIC TO SWAY PUBLIC MEETINGS AND HOW TO THWART THEM

The Delphi Technique, what it is and how to counter it

[Rebel_Ace]

Standard Axiom of Psychohistory, as postulated by Hari Seldon. NBD.