[ckilmer]

As much as I hate making market predictions, I would bet my horse we won’t come close to breaking even by 2017 on oil production and consumption.
...........
I had my doubts about that until I started reading about the cline shale formation in the permian basin.

Not only is there more oil there than in the baaken and eagle ford combined but they can extract it much more cheaply and they already have the infrastructure in place to get it to market. so the volumes will go up as fast or faster than eagle ford.

[thackney]

In 5 years, the Eagle Ford has climbed to ~536,000 Barrels per day.

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/eagleford/EagleFordOilProduction.pdf

We currently import, even after all the recent increase, ~7,700,000 Barrels per Day

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbblpd_m.htm

How much oil do you think the Cline Shale will be producing in 4 years? How many wells do you think it would take to reach that point? Before you answer, do you understand how fast the drop off in oil production is in tight formations with long horizontals such as shale?

Do you know how many drill rigs that would take given the time it takes to drill a well? Do you understand what it would take to transport that much oil and how long it would take to build all of it?

We won't be a net oil exporter in 25 years, let alone 4.

[thackney]

I think the following is a really good article on the recent data on the Cline Shale. Does this look comparable to what you have read?

Future Looks Bright for Cline Shale Potential
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/127338/Future_Looks_Bright_for_Cline_Shale_Potential/?all=HG2
June 26, 2013

Our estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) type curves for the Cline shale is roughly at 420,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per well, so the economics work all day long,” Faulkner added.

Initial Cline production results for a number of relatively large wells – 400 to 800 barrels of oil per day