Isn’t 200,000 considered the break-even point?
Yes, estimates vary from about 125K to just over 250K.
See:
Unemployment in the United States
"During the 41 months from January 2010 to May 2013, there were 19 months where the unemployment rate declined. On average, 179,000 jobs were created in those months. The median job creation during those months was 166,000."
Yes and they almost always revise downward.