to punt, they need 5 to keep it away from kennedy as I cannot believe he would deny review .. unless he is foxier than that, wants to avoid a backlash.
Could it be Breyer? One of the 5 liberals see the backlash problem otherwise they would plow ahead. They are using the incremental approach.
gay marriage will be nationalized unless there is a serious shift to the right nationally and conservatives get the Ginsburg seat. Although, I cannot imagine she will stay on past ‘16. The other 4 libs are under age 80 and can survive until 2025. We are cooked.
Ginsburg might resign this summer or next.
Actually, to punt, they need *6* to keep it away from Kennedy (assuming that Kennedy wants to rule right now, as you do; if Kennedy doesn’t, which I don’t think he does, then it would take 5 more). All they need is 4 votes to grant cert.
Ginsburg has given no indication that she will retire this summer. And next summer will be right before the midterm elections, so I don’t think she’ll retire then, either. I’m thinking 2015 at the earliest (and she may well stay for several years more) . Yes, she’d be risking a GOP Senate, but it’s not as if the GOP couldn’t block an ultraiberal nominee next summer anyhow.