Posted on 06/21/2013 5:57:45 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
With a cloture vote on the Senate’s immigration reform bill expected next week, countless commentators have expressed the view that if Republicans don’t sign on for reform, the party is doomed at the presidential level for a generation.
This is the first in a two-part series explaining why this conventional wisdom is incorrect. Signing on to a comprehensive immigration package is probably part of one way for Republicans to form a winning coalition at the presidential level, but it isn’t the only way (for more, I’ve written a book about this, as well as countless articles here at RCP). Today I’ll re-examine what was really the most salient demographic change in 2012: The drop-off in white voters. Next time, we’ll confront some of the assumptions embedded in the “GOP has to do this” argument head-on.
I should re-emphasize at the outset that I think that embracing some sort of immigration reform probably helps with Republicans’ outreach efforts to Hispanics, and the idea that there is a treasure-trove of votes to be had for Democrats here is almost certainly overstated. I should also re-emphasize that from a “pure policy” standpoint, I find quite a bit to like in the basic “Gang of Eight” framework. But regardless of whether Republicans could or should back the bill, it simply isn’t necessary for them to do so and remain a viable political force.
1. The most salient demographic change from 2008 to 2012 was the drop in white voters.
Let’s start with the basics: Just what were the demographic changes in that four-year span? I did some preliminary work in November 2012 suggesting that the largest change came from white voters dropping out. Now, with more complete data, we can re-assess this in a more precise manner.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Are the votes of whites even being counted?
The DO”J” has armies to terrify them at the polls
... and protection of the DNC-software
used to ERASE any problematic white or non-DNC votes.
Republicans ‘reaching out’ to Hispanics makes as much sense as Democrats ‘reaching out’ to NRA Gun Owners... It’s a waste of time and money.
The article makes a salient observation regarding the demographic change.
Even if Whites turn up by normal numbers, it is NOT enough to swing the election to Obama.
O still won the election by almost exactly 5 million votes.
If we assume there were 6.5 million “missing” white voters, than means that Romney would have had to win almost 90 percent of their votes to win the election.
Not possible.
Give that whites overall broke roughly 60-40 for Romney, this seems unlikely. In fact, if these voters had shown up and voted like whites overall voted, Obama’s margin would have shrunk, but he still would have won by a healthy 2.7 percent margin.
If Republicans wanted to win a few races they should 'reach out' to the people who might vote for them... As opposed to calling us names.
If the IRS had targeted gay groups or black groups for TWO YEARS democrats would have taken up their cause and marshaled their forces in the MSM to express outrage.
When the IRS targeted the Republican base - people like McCain 'reached out' to illegals while looking down on us. I'm surprised so many conservatives still bother to vote..
“Are the votes of whites even being counted?
The DO”J” has armies to terrify them at the polls
... and protection of the DNC-software
used to ERASE any problematic white or non-DNC votes.”
And that would be the correct explanations.
Democrat white votes are being counted, maybe more than once.
Sadly, the Republicans ran Obama lite against Obama, with enough stoppers and deal-breakers in the candidate's history to reduce critical support.
Had the candidate been clearly Conservative with a history to match, the results may have been different.
Maybe I am figuring the calculus wrong, but I think it more likely that "moderate" Republicans would vote for a Conservative over a Democrat, than (at this point) Conservatives vote for a "Moderate" Republican. RINOs don't energize the base in much of the country.
Are the votes of whites even being counted?
The DO”J” has armies to terrify them at the polls
... and protection of the DNC-software
used to ERASE any problematic white or non-DNC votes.
Those who COUNT the votes control the elections...
There are Hispanics, and then there are Hispanics.
There is clearly a way to reach the Hispanic vote, because Hispanics who are Protestant are reachable.
For instance in 2004 the republicans won 56% of their vote, in 2008 against the wave called Obama and history, the GOP still won 48% of their vote.
The GOP’s problem is that no one, including whites, knows what the republican party is, or is trying to be, or what it stands for or represents.
I can’t describe what the GOP is, on most days I think of the GOP as the 1980 democrat party.
I use the change from 2004 to 2008 as a proxy for voter fall off ~
Bush is still the Republican high water mark.
The second error he makes is using population numbers as a proxy for voters. I try to stick to numbers of Republicans, numbers of Democrats and numbers of non-voters as a proxy for voters and non-voters.
When I do that I do so knowing that African-American voters are concentrated in certain districts! That data is heavily massaged every 10 years by Republicans to make sure that blacks get safe Congressional districts. The folks make sure black people not only get stuffed into those districts but that areas where black people vote are stuffed in there to guarantee results!
Democrats don't like the system ~ except members of the Congressional Black Caucus love it!
Anyway, knowing all that I deduced that the big drop off from 2004 to 2008 was simply death ~ Republican voters died ~ Baby Boomers hit 60 and Boom, There It Is! It's roughly 4 million in a four year period.
Democrats also die at a slightly greater rate because they have a slightly shorter lifespan. They account for about 4.5 million Democrat voters lost in that same period.
In 2007 or thereabouts, in reaction to their victory in 2006 where Republican turnout really fell off from what had been expected, the Democrats mounted an historic voter registration drive ~ SEE: ACORN ~ and made up for the deaths, took advantage of the natural growth, and added to their numbers. They went into 2008 with 69 million Democrat voters. Republicans went in with 60 million Republican voters!
Maybe this is a third error on the part of the writer ~ he may have in mind that Republicans and Democrats draw from the same voting base, and that their candidates compete with ideas in campaigns. Actually, that's not what happens at all. Thomas Jefferson proved it.
The basic idea is to build a base of YOUR VOTERS and turn them out in elections to vote for your people. Philosophical and program battles are conducted over a longer period of time ~ over years, not months. Jefferson's supporters knew what he stood for and voted for him and his candidates. The Federalists had imagined that men of education and property would select quality men for public office. Jefferson knew that was a non-starter so he ran people who had the backing of a large political party behind them!
It has not changed.
The writer koinkydinkily came up with the fact that Republicans registered several million new Republican voters from 2008 to 2012. I think he missed the fact the Democrats registered only 1/2 million new Democrats in that period! Their fall off was DEATH ~ old Democrats died at an enormous rate and without ACORN to work at replacing them, Obama's numbers fell.
The DWL (disingenuous white liberal) Romney could not turn out the white blue collar aka Reagan Democrat vote....I voted for the worthless Romney because of the horrid Obama-ites but I’d not do it today!
Key point from the article for all of those who won’t read the whole thing:
“Romney’s problem was not with the Republican base or evangelicals (who constituted a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2004).”
It was conservative and independent whites that stayed home. Independents tend to be conservative by a 2 to 1 margin. The nation is mostly conservative by a significant margin.
A good conservative candidate will not only turn out the base but win over the independents and induce those that normally don’t make it to the polls to turn out and vote.
The conservative message is strong and attractive as long as it articulated well by the right messenger.
I hold a doctorate in statistics and I can tell you these numbers mean nothing. Those that listen to these numbers like Rove and the knuckleheads inside the Beltway are betting on numbers and not on passions and movements. And passions and movements are in large part controlled by the NY-DC press. That’s where a significant part of the problem lies, not in the message but in the distribution of the message. The other significant part of the problem lies in the messenger’s ability to galvanize the subgroups.
Americans including democrats should have been more ashamed to vote for Obama but the alternative in Romney was to vote for a flip flopping mealy-mouthed rich guy. Many on left and right sat out but more so the conservatives and independents who thought Romney correctly to be a Republican-In-Name-Only or RINO.
The point is that demographics are not so important as a wave of passion for a belief and trust in true leadership, and a feeling of pride in imagining that leadership in power. Obama created that as an illusion in 2008 but not in 2012. Romney never had it even if he would have had the NY press behind him.
With adequate press coverage a good orator with clear principles will make all the subgroups shift in ways that pollsters could never fathom. Even with inadequate press coverage a good leader will attract and compel the press to cover.
Are the votes of whites even being counted?
The DO”J” has armies to terrify them at the polls
... and protection of the DNC-software
used to ERASE any problematic white or non-DNC votes.
They’re doing their best to make sure twice as many go missing next time.
Don’t discount the effect of denying tax exempt status, either...
Actually the NRA will acknowledge a pro 2nd Amendment Democrat. I can't see any support for a Hispanic Republican from La Raza or MALDEF.
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