Absolutely amazing how the media elites can keep “failing up.” Couric left the CBS Evening News in worse shape than she found it, and now her daytime talk show (which airs primarily on ABC affiliates) is tanking. Surprised Big Journalism didn’t ask the sales manager at WABC or KABC how much money they’re losing in Couric’s timeslot, and how much of a drag she’s having on the local news.
The morning and evening news blocs are the most important revenue sources for a local station, and major market affiliates typically air two (or more) hours of local news every evening, starting at 3 or 4 pm. And, since the ABC owned-and-operated stations typically dominate the local ratings, they won’t tolerate a “lead-in” show that delivers fewer viewers and might create an opening for one of their competitors.
Here’s an indicator to watch for (from someone who worked in the broadcast salt mines until I had to good sense to join the U.S. military). If an afternoon talk show is tanking, many local stations will switch it to some ridiculous time slot (say, 2 am) until they can get out of the contract. And when one station makes a move, the others are sure to follow, particularly if they can find something that will deliver better numbers at a lower cost.
“Katie” may have been renewed for a second season, but Disney was probably contractually bound for two years of the program, and probably doesn’t want to write Couric a huge check and get nothing in return. Besides, they need a little time to line up something to replace her show, whether it’s another talk show, or extending their news blocs by another hour.
The most likely time for a change will be after the November ratings period, or sweeps. Some station group will decide they’re tired of paying a premium price for a show that doesn’t deliver, and they’ll banish Katie to an overnight slot. When that happens, the dam will break; other stations will follow suit, and the cancellation notice will be announced sometime in the spring.
After that, Katie will move back to “Today,” or take a seat on “Good Morning America.” Robin Roberts’ long-term health prognosis is uncertain, at best, and ABC figures it might as well get something for all those millions it invested in the Couric brand. Or, they can write another huge check and send her on her way.
And who replaces Couric in the afternoon? Well, there’s a certain former talk host who launched her own network, and it’s burning through money faster than a drunken sailor. And the media companies that helped finance the venture are getting tired of losing all that dough. So watch for Oprah to pull an Algore, sell her network to some sucker (Al Jazerra Daytime, anyone), and quietly return to daytime TV.
Remember: these are the same people that keep hiring Keith Olberman over and over again. In their thinking, Katie and Oprah are “proven talents,” who keep getting fatter paychecks for dwindling audiences.
“And who replaces Couric in the afternoon? Well, there’s a certain former talk host who launched her own network... watch for Oprah to pull an Algore, sell her network to some sucker (Al Jazerra Daytime, anyone), and quietly return to daytime TV.”
Unlike Al Gore’s loser network, OWN is finally enjoying a ratings upswing. Discovery (and Oprah) won’t sell now that profits are on the horizon.
If Oprah does ever go back to daily talk (doubtful), it’ll be on her own network, not for syndication.