[kabar]

As I recall, Virginia’s 09 election was almost a straight up and down the ballot referendum on Obama, the candidates were almost not relevant - and Obama got shellacked. If its that kind of referendum in ‘13, I think Obama gets shellacked again.

VA is a purple state. The race for governor will be very close. If the Dems get anywhere near the turnout they did in 2008 and 2012 in Northern VA, McAuliffe will win. The demographics of VA have been changing rapidly over the years. Immigration and minority birthrates will make VA blue in a decade.

The Obama scandals will hopefully affect the Dem turnout. Cuccinelli is a real conservative and a tireless and great campaigner. He could also be an energizing force for the Dems who have demonized him as a right wing radical. But make no mistake about it, this will be a close race.

As in 2009, this race will be held in an off-year

[C. Edmund Wright]

Which is why the 08 and 12 turn outs are not relevant IMO.

[EDINVA]

I worked as an election official in November ‘12. Amazing how many (totally clueless) voters volunteered that they had not voted since ‘08. Now the D organization with tons of McAuliffe $$$ may work to get those folks out in ‘13, but most seemed uninclined to vote except for Barack. They gonna go out and vote for a rich white guy?