Well, the earlier accident was clearly load shift. You can see the plane suddenly shift to its left and then an attempt to veer back right prior to crashing.
I doubt if this accident is nothing more than a tragic accident as well.
The load shifted toward the back of the 747 which pushed its Center of Gravity back causing it to go nose high. Once you get up to about 19 degrees (or even less) it’s gonna stall.
When it shifted to the left the left wing had stalled first followed by the right. I’m sure the pilot did all he could to keep the wings level and get the nose down but it wasn’t enough.
Just a note that National Cargo released a statement saying that Bagram was only a fuel stop for the 747BCF. There was no change in the cargo or personnel at Bagram. Cargo was only inspected. So it appears that the cargo was fine for the first leg of the flight, from Camp Bastion to Bagram.
Doesn’t mean the cargo didn’t shift, but it makes it a little bit less likely.