Daily investment & finance & thread (4-18-13 edition)

4-18-13

[jdsteel]

Unless the real world market goes black market to set a different street price to the official price that is not happening. This is not to say I can’t imagine scenarios where this would occur. What I am saying is that is not the world we live in now.

[Casie]

cool info!

And that brings us full circle. :p

From 91' through 2011 we have an unexplained export gap of 4,490 metric tons leaving the US. Your graph shows 2,500 tons mined world wide in 2011. That means the US is seeing only a fraction of that number. The US Mint alone can sell 3 tons in 2 days to a specific market.

To me all this adds up to:
The US may have less gold stored than we may think.
Gold is moving east.
And price may no longer be set world wide.

Private sellers, Apmex, Gainsville, Tulving are literally setting their own price and getting it. Supply and demand is trumping the manipulated spot price. And as long as people are willing to pay $1505 (Gainsville's cc price per oz) then it no longer matters that the spot price went to $1340. And if the spot keeps falling and buyers no longer want to buy at $1505, sellers have the option of lowering price OR stop selling, sit on the stock, and wait for the hyper-inflation.

The world economy is not healthy. The US economy is not healthy. People are going to continue to look for ways to protect wealth as fiat cash gets mass printed into oblivion. There will be a period of deflation, but will PM sellers sell low? Only if their hand is weak.

Fascinating conversation!

[Casie]

good link, thanks. :)

[expat_panama]

From 91' through 2011 we have an unexplained export gap of 4,490 metric tons leaving the US. Your graph shows 2,500 tons...

Right, the wealth of info available is truly exciting.  I can't find that 4,490 number any where though, pls show where it's 'unexplained'.   Also, remember that 2,500 metric tons = 2756 tons.

[Casie]

I was wondering if you read the link. :) I guess you missed it. No biggie, here it is again.

TABLE 3: US GOLD MARKET, CUMULATIVE SUPPLY DEMAND 1991-2012 (IN TONNES)

US Supply, Mine Production + Scrap Recycling = 7,532
US Demand, All Sources = 6,517
Surplus Available For Export = 1,014
Actual Gold Exports (1991-2012) = 11,223
Actual Gold Imports, same period = 5,719
Actual US Net Gold Exported = 5,504
US Gold Available For Export = 1,104 (Figures Above)
Unexplained Export Gap = (4,490)

If you get a chance (and you haven't already seen it) check out the whole article on zero hedge. Is fascinating!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/sprott-do-western-central-banks-have-any-gold-left-part-ii

I have a very limited example, but its interesting none the less! I bought silver eagles when the spot price was $26 and then I bought again when the spot price was $23 but the price I paid for both orders was nearly the same. All Gainsville and Apmex did was raise thier premiums, so as to not lose money on the deal. Maybe that makes me a fool for buying but I sure wasn't the only one! Just hours later stock was sold out and now there is a waiting time. New orders ship 5/10. Crazy right?!

[Casie]

One more little note about gold and silver production this year... I wasn't going to mention it because the US mine that collapsed mainly produces copper and silver but now a second mine has closed, so gold production will be effected somewhat.

On 4/12/13 the US Bingham Canyon mine suffered a major collapse from ground thaw and is closed. The ground is still unstable and it will be several years before it is back to full operation. Bingham Canyon produces some 400,000 ounces of gold and nearly 3 million ounces of silver on a yearly basis as byproducts of copper mining.

Also on Wednesday (4/10/13), the Chilean supreme court suspended Barrick Gold's Pascua Lama mine over a variety of environmental and social concerns, and that project got relegated to years of litigation. This is a huge mine project with probable reserves of over 18 million ounces of gold and 700 million ounces of silver. It is now completely halted and will remain so as lawyers battle things out in a process that most think will be several years long.