Daily investment & finance & thread (4-18-13 edition)

1 posted on 04/18/2013 1:45:33 AM PDT by dennisw

To: chuckles; Diana in Wisconsin; Boogieman; BipolarBob; yldstrk; nodakkid; Aquamarine; BenLurkin; ...

2 posted on 04/18/2013 1:46:20 AM PDT by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing - Joe Pine)

3 posted on 04/18/2013 2:01:16 AM PDT by Freedom of Speech Wins

Add please, Mr W. :)

Did everyone get their phys PM orders in before supplies starting drying up? I got deliveries from Apmex yesterday and Gainsville arrives today! No gold though. Just shiny silver.

Wouldn't it be great to have the expendable cash to be all stocked up on food, water, ammo, silver, AND gold?? Ah well, we do the best we can. I focused mainly on coins people would easily recognize for trades- American silver eagles and 90% silver dimes, halves and dollars. Any great deals out there I am missing?

What did you guys buy?

My advice is if you see something you want to add to your stacks, go ahead and pick it up. Waiting for prices to drop more is most likely a mute point. The fake market paper price is clearly decoupling from actual supply and demand. Of course I could be wrong, but with demand so high only a halfwit would sell at spot price. Expect to see +++premiums added to bring the price up to ensure sellers are able to still make some kind of profit. But you guys probably know that already.

I really don't even want to see what crappy mayhem is coming tomorrow. Texas is going to be a horrible and heart-breaking sight. But of course ignoring it doesn't make it go away.

4 posted on 04/18/2013 2:18:22 AM PDT by Casie (democrats destroy)

To: Casie; WildHighlander57

moot. not mute point.

I had to acknowledge my typo so WildHighlander57 doesn't ping me with dear/deer, mute/moot puns. :p

5 posted on 04/18/2013 2:24:53 AM PDT by Casie (democrats destroy)

Hey Dennis, I think the correct link to your precious metals site is: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/
I’d add, I’m not endorsing the analysis on the site, just trying to help you out.

It’s NOT the turdfergusen.com one you referenced.

I did get a good laugh though when I clicked your link. So thanks for that. lol

6 posted on 04/18/2013 3:13:10 AM PDT by fiftymegaton (God Bless and Protect America)

The fake market paper price is clearly decoupling from actual supply and demand.

Now there's a good discussion point. I mean, lot's of people understand that a market price happens when one guy sells something to a buyer. If the "fake market paper" thing something to do with currencies or with commodity derivatives, please help me follow how they could decouple.

7 posted on 04/18/2013 3:49:15 AM PDT by expat_panama

To: expat_panama

Hi expat. :)

When you are looking at spot price of silver or gold, you are really looking at the paper silver market (SLV and GLD). This is primarily the futures market in which large traders (hedge funds, large commercial banks, bullion banks, etc) hold long or short positions.

There is no one really taking possession of any physical metals.

I call it fake because its being artificially manipulated. Consider the current short position of JP Morgan (one single entity) equals some 12.5% of total yearly silver mining production. This short position is so concentrated that it has the power to control the overall price.

In the article "The Great Disconnect" Ted Butler points out that the paper market controlling the price is illegal practice; it is against commodity law.

But by artificially pummeling the price of precious metals the Fed got a consumer response they did not expect. Demand went thought the roof.

Because supply and demand trumps all fake spot prices of GLD and SLV, sellers have "decoupled" the price of physical metals from the paper commodities.

Its also interesting to note that Largest Dutch bank defaulted on physical gold deliveries to customers on April 3rd. ABN AMRO, the largest Dutch bank in the Eurozone, issued a letter to their gold contract customers of failure of delivery, and instead will pay account holders in a paper currency equivalent to the current spot value of the metal.

Can you imagine being DENIED delivery of your gold and being told instead you will have to accept fiat paper money at low low manipulated paper gold prices? Ahh! Frightening!

I hope I got all that right and answered your question. Basically sellers will sell phys pms at the prices buyers are willing to pay... not what the markets SLV and GLD numbers are. Decoupled. Thats the way I see it anyway.

8 posted on 04/18/2013 4:28:13 AM PDT by Casie (democrats destroy)

NYSE Morning Update:

Ahead of the Bell: Dow futures are trading up 46 points and S&P futures are trading up 5 points. Bargain hunters are looking for deals following the selloff this week on expectations of loose central bank monetary policy boosted by optimism over the prospects for growth in the US economy. Surprisingly weak economic data from the US and China, along with the International Monetary Fund cutting is global growth forecast has fueled the pullback in financial markets. Commodity markets however, continue to retreat on worries of lower growth in China, where gold, copper, and crude oil is near multi-month lows. The earnings parade continues, after Morgan Stanley reported better than expected first quarter results.

• On the economic calendar today, the Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims before the market opens, 347K is forecasted compared with 346K for the week prior. Philadelphia Federal survey will be out after the opening bell, it is forecasted to be to be 3.3 versus 2.0.for March.

• The dollar is down against the major currencies. Gold is trading at $1,393. Crude oil is currently trading at $87 a barrel.

• Yesterday, stocks slumped again, erasing yesterday’s rally, amid losses in industrial metals and disappointing quarterly results from Bank of America.

• On CNBC today, Hugh Johnston, CFO and EVP at Pepsico, Inc., talked about how business is progressing. PepsiCo reported Q1 EPS 77c, versus estimates 71c and Q1 revenue $12.58B, versus estimates of $12.61B. Johnson said the company did get off to a strong start for year, driven by developing and emerging markets, including Asia and Africa. He feels good about improvements in margins and Pepsico has reaffirmed guidance for the year. The company is expecting a strong performance for the rest of the year. Productivity programs are now yielding benefits. The China business is doing well, particularly the snack portfolio.

• Also on CNBC, Peter Kenny, managing director in institutional sales for Knight Equities talked about what’s driving the markets. Kenny said we are in correction mode, in the long term this is good for the equity market. He added that the rally remains intact. He remains concerned with growth in the US and China, and first quarter earnings. However, he pointed there are some positive to look forward to, including GDP expansion, employment trends broadening out, and the improving housing markets. He forecast positive profit margins for the year and expects the S&P 500 to go higher for the remainder of the year.

• Happy Thursday and have a nice day.

Wednesday’s Close

DJIA down 138.19 pts/-1.08%/ 14,618.78
S&P up 22.21 pts/+1.43%/ 1,574.57
Nasdaq up 48.14 pts/+1.50%/ 3,264.63

Thursday’s Futures

Dow Futures up 46.27 pts/+0.62%
S&P Futures up 5.50 pts/+0.66%
Nasdaq Futures up 11.25 pts/+0.41%

Overseas Markets

FTSE +0.417%
CAC 40 +0.78%
NIKKEI 225 -1.22%
HANG SENG -0.26%

Overseas: World stock markets are up today. European and Asian markets are up on optimism of loose global monetary policy.

Economic Reports: Jobless Claims expected to be 347K at 8:30 a.m., Philadelphia Fed Survey expected to be 3.3, and Leading Indicators expected to be 0.2% at 10:00a.m.

Top Headlines:

• Roper Industries Inc. (ROP) announced it is acquiring privately held Managed Health Care Associates for approximately $1 billion.

• Votorantim Cimentos S.A., Brazil’s largest cement producer filed to list its IPO of $5.4 billion on the NYSE. The number of ADS’s is to be determined and Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and others are listed as underwriters.

• Omega Advisors, one of the largest shareholders of Sprint Nextel Corp (S) has joined a growing group of investors who favor Dish Network Corp’s (DISH) $25.5 billion bid for the wireless carrier over Japan’s SoftbanK Corp.

Commodities/Currency:

Gold: up $1.70 to $1,393.50
Oil: up 0.86 to $87.54

EUR/USD 1.3060 +0.0001
USD/JPY 98.3150 +0.0755
GBP/USD 1.555 +0.0013

Volatility Index (VIX): As of the close of business Wednesday, April 17, the VIX is up 2.55 at 16.51
Companies Reporting Quarterly Earnings:

Morgan Stanley reports Q1 adj EPS 61c, vs. Est 57c and Q1 revenue $8.5B Ex-DVA, consensus $8.35B. Reports net revenues of $8.2B including the negative impact of $317M from the tightening of DVA.

Verizon reports Q1 EPS 68c, vs. Est 66c and Q1 revenue $29.4B, vs. Est $29.56B.

Omnicom reports Q1 EPS 76c, vs. Est 75c and Q1 revenue $3.40BB, vs. Est $3.41B.

Snap-On reports Q1 EPS $1.40, vs. Est $1.34 and Q1 revenue $741.7M, vs. Est $753.31M.

Today’s Opening and Closing Bells:

Taminco Corporation IPO celebration will ring the opening bell.

Intelsat S.A. IPO celebration will ring the closing bell.

9 posted on 04/18/2013 5:14:26 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)

Add “Calculated Risk: calculatedrisk.com” for Housing information

10 posted on 04/18/2013 5:15:21 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)

...primarily the futures market... ...no one really taking possession of any physical metals. I call it fake...

That's fair, and the number's truly fake when misused by uninformed or dissembling pundits peddling their rants. Just the same, apples and oranges have so much in common that we can be surprised those few times when they don't quite add up like we expected and we're forced to clarify.

Thanks!

11 posted on 04/18/2013 5:44:08 AM PDT by expat_panama

Jobs numbers ... late? Gotta let the outstanding headlines of the mediocre Morgan Stanley earnings numbers sink in for a few extra minutes I suppose.

12 posted on 04/18/2013 5:47:27 AM PDT by fiftymegaton (God Bless and Protect America)

To: fiftymegaton; All

lol Check that.. I just saw a couple negative headlines for the Morgan Stanley numbers. One from the Wall Street Journal, and the other from CNN Money.

Not sure what’s holding up the jobless numbers.

13 posted on 04/18/2013 5:50:41 AM PDT by fiftymegaton (God Bless and Protect America)

To: fiftymegaton; All

Jobless Claims:

352,000 new unemployment insurance claims, an increase of 4,000 from the prior week (naturally revised higher from 346K to 348K), and a slight miss of expectations of 350K

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-18/initial-claims-snoozer-just-higher-expected

The market yawns.

14 posted on 04/18/2013 5:53:40 AM PDT by fiftymegaton (God Bless and Protect America)

To: Wyatt's Torch

Volatility Index (VIX): As of the close of business...

Is there someplace with a VIX futures market? I get a good handle on attitudes with other equity indexes at this site but there's no 'VIX'. OK, so I know I'm asking for a derivative of a derivative, but still...

15 posted on 04/18/2013 6:01:44 AM PDT by expat_panama

To: fiftymegaton

Jobless Claims... ...The market yawns.

People have to be noticing how previous claims numbers have been revised higher this time. Both new and continuing.

Again.

16 posted on 04/18/2013 6:04:41 AM PDT by expat_panama

To: expat_panama

Oh you are so right about the lying pos pundits claiming gold is bust, silver is dead, just forgetaboutit!

So lets get this straight... Demand is UP UP UP. According to yesterday's data from the US Mint, a record 63,500 ounces, or a whopping 2 tons, of gold were reported sold on April 17th alone, bringing the total sales for the month to a whopping 147,000 ounces or more than the previous two months combined with just half of the month gone.

But CNN, MSNBC and other mainstream finance sites declare PMs sunk! HA! Lying jackwagons.

17 posted on 04/18/2013 6:09:42 AM PDT by Casie (democrats destroy)

...Demand is UP UP UP. According to yesterday's data from the US Mint, a record 63,500 ounces, or a whopping 2 tons, of gold were reported sold on April 17th alone...

Of course that record is trading volume not demand, and one day's volume doesn't show a trend being either up or down. Remember also that we got over 7 tons of gold mined and put on the world market on April 17th alone and gold production is up 3% for the quarter.

18 posted on 04/18/2013 6:27:47 AM PDT by expat_panama

To: expat_panama

We're talking physical here. "The more the price of gold fell, the more aggressive the purchases of physical gold through the Mint became, rising to 96,500 oz in the last two days alone. Buying more of something you want when the price drops: what a stunning concept - explain that to the algos who nearly crashed the German stock market overnight.

19 posted on 04/18/2013 6:32:49 AM PDT by Casie (democrats destroy)

To: expat_panama

—People have to be noticing how previous claims numbers have been revised higher this time. Both new and continuing.—

People? Maybe.

The stock market/traders? From what I can tell the stock market has actually taken higher jobless claims numbers as GOOD news. Whether it sees bad numbers and anticipates more QE or who knows what.

Everything seems upside down and bassackwards to me.

Though as I type this we seem to be continuing yesterday’s selloff, so maybe economic reality will hit this market yet.

I still have to see more unwinding before I’ll be convinced stocks are recognizing reality. The Dow has only closed below it’s 20DMA 3 times in the last almost 4 months. And that ‘correction’ was in actuality less than 2%, before turning on a dime and jumping to all-time highs.

I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see another bounce from here up to new-new-new all time highs.

Even though I personally don’t think new highs are warranted in the slightest. And in fact, I think the major indices are a minimum of 10% inflated at the moment.

As an example for my believing such, Copper rolled over the first week of February, and has since slid over 16%... Yet equities are near all time highs.

Another example, 10-year Bond yields rolled over the first week of March, and have slid almost 20%... Yet equities are near all time highs.

Another example, NYSE Margin Debt is at almost record levels(and may very well be at record levels.. can’t wait for the March numbers to be released), levels not seen since the 2007 top(June-July 2007).

20 posted on 04/18/2013 7:00:02 AM PDT by fiftymegaton (God Bless and Protect America)

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