Posted on 04/12/2013 3:00:31 PM PDT by Titus-Maximus
OVER the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar. The world added roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO₂ put there by humanity since 1750. And yet, as James Hansen, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, observes, “the five-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade.”
Temperatures fluctuate over short periods, but this lack of new warming is a surprise. Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, in Britain, points out that surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models (see chart 1). If they remain flat, they will fall outside the models’ range within a few years. The mismatch between rising greenhouse-gas emissions and not-rising temperatures is among the biggest puzzles in climate science just now. It does not mean global warming is a delusion. Flat though they are, temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century remain almost 1°C above their level in the first decade of the 20th. But the puzzle does need explaining. The mismatch might mean that—for some unexplained reason—there has been a temporary lag between more carbon dioxide and higher temperatures in 2000-10. Or it might be that the 1990s, when temperatures were rising fast, was the anomalous period. Or, as an increasing body of research is suggesting, it may be that the climate is responding to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in ways that had not been properly understood before. This possibility, if true, could have profound significance both for climate science and for environmental and social policy.
Climate prediction, at the present level of knowledge is the equivalent of doing brain surgery with salad tongs. You will never succeed.
Duh. As if any rational person couldn’t see it.
you know how it is with computer models - garbage in garbage out
The Left has already accepted man-made climate change as Gospel, despite the lack of evidence. Their agenda precedes them in this case. It allows them to attack industry, capitalism, the very heart of American competitiveness. For myself, I want to see some actual evidence if that’s not too heretical, and then if necessary find a measured, reasonable solution, not a mad panicky rush into the dark ages.
IMHO....The Sun God and the Volcano Gods have complete control over the little Blue Marble’s temperature.....and the real God runs that control panel
Freeman Dyson points out that the models in use cannot hind cast. By that he means the models, if loaded with known variables from 1998 and forward cannot predict the current conditions. Since both ends the tested period are known absolutely, this is a fatal critique of the models. They don’t even come close.
Of course not. Why, one of the best indicators of global warming is that the temperature doesn't go up.
Interglacial Period
Maunder Minimum
Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
The whole premise that molecular level increases of CO2 in the atmosphere drive global temperature increases is not supported by actual observations and thus is faulty. Scientific method would say that the theory of CO2 driven temperature increases is not supported by the data and thus should be drastically revised or abandoned. To stubbornly cling to this theory is dogmatic not scientific.
As is evidenced by the fact that weathermen can get it so wrong so often and remain in work. It's not odd for a two-day forecast to be "updated" a few times a day and still be wrong; and that's with all the pertinent information readily available and observable on a real-time basis..
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