Here Are The Seven Senate Races To Watch In 2014

Business Insider ^ | 2/18/13 | Eric Pianin

[randita]

Here Are The Seven Senate Races To Watch In 2014

Eric Pianin, The Fiscal Times | Feb. 16, 2013, 2:00 PM

Just as the memory of the last bruising battle for control of the Senate begins to fade, political handicappers are casting their gaze to the 2014 campaign when Republicans once again will try to overcome the Democratic majority.

Just as the Republicans began the 2012 campaign cycle in strong shape to reclaim the Senate, the GOP has a clear edge heading into the next face off. While some of the most intriguing political speculation today centers on whether actress Ashley Judd will run as a Democrat to challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, political analysts are focusing again on the Democrats’ substantial vulnerabilities in retaining control of the Senate in two years.

The Democrats emerged from the 2012 election with a 55 to 45 seat advantage over the Republicans, thanks in part to President Obama’s solid reelection victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney and to “stupid” gaffes made by GOP Senate contenders.

Rather than losing ground, as many political analysts  had predicted, the Democrats were able to pick up a couple of seats. 

Looking ahead to the next big battle, Democrats will once again have to scramble to retain control of the Senate as a counterweight to the Republican majority in the House. And they will have to do that without the benefit of a strong  Democratic president at the top of the ticket.

The Democrats’ predicament stems from a combination of retirements – including those of veteran Sens.  Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia and Tom Harkin of Iowa, and changing political fortunes that leaves them on political high alert in a dozen or more states.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I postulated that Baucus (whom is actually a Watergate baby like Harkin, having beaten a GOP House incumbent) might retire. Still, if I were the DNC, the last thing I’d want is a really ugly primary between Baucus and Schweitzer (think of what happened with Blanche Lincoln facing Lt Gov Bill Halter in AR). Baucus has generally tended to luck out by drawing weak opponents for years (his last opponent was the late Bob Kelleher, an 85-year old ultraleft Green moonbat who inexplicably managed to win the GOP nomination). Still, we must recruit a strong opponent.

Ordinarily, I might consider Rehberg again, but he blew a winnable race against a fluke moonbat, and so I think that rules him out. I worry that pushing Daines into the race might be too fast (a la Rick Berg). Baucus waited two terms in the House before running (despite the fact that he could’ve run for Mike Mansfield’s seat after a single term in 1976, but deferred to the more senior Congressman John Melcher).

Curiously, when Sen. Lee Metcalf died in 1978, the Democrat Governor, Tom Judge, passed on appointing Baucus and instead went with the state Chief Justice Paul Hatfield. Hatfield was such a disastrous choice that he lost the primary to Baucus by a margin of 65%-19% (!) That’s the last time an incumbent Senator was beaten in the primary in the state.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Rehberg’s loss was one big WTF moment, but then again, most of the competitive Senate races that year were WTF moments (seriously, we only flipped Ben Nelson’s open seat? I still am floored by that).

I think Berg also had a bunch of problems like using the franking privilege too much and coming off as an out of touch elitist. If Daines has a more down to earth appeal, he may do better. Then again, Montana isn’t that big population-wise, so perhaps we could pluck someone from the state legislature for the job. (I think Tester was Senate president or something) Or maybe Montana has a Ron Johnson-type somewhere?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yup, flipped just Nelson’s seat (and had he not retired, we might’ve blown winning that one). As it was, we knocked off precisely zero incumbents in the Senate (and as I’ve said may times, we have never beaten more than 2 incumbents since after 1980. An absolutely flooring and inexcusable statistic... and even in 1994, still just two (Wofford in PA and Sasser here in my state of TN by Frist)).

The heartbreaking one was ex-Congressman Rick Hill’s excruciatingly narrow loss for MT Governor. After the GOP’s huge wins in the legislature under the vile Schweitzer, Hill’s win should’ve been assured. I’ve always found it more than a bit curious how Republicans have lost scores of races in MT (statewide/federal) by tiny margins.

The former MT GOP Senate leader, Corey Stapleton, is considered the biggest candidate in the race so far for Baucus’s seat. Daines will have to make up his mind soon, but I still think it may be too early and too risky for him to run, given that he hasn’t even held office statewide for 2 months. Might be safer and easier for him to stay put for now and either run against Gov. Bullock in ‘16 or Tester in ‘18.

[Theodore R.]

Baucus is the ambassador to Japan. He has resigned from the Senate.