Initial unemployment insurance claims fell by 27,000, to 341,000, in the week ended 9 February. The four-week moving average ticked up 1,500, to 352,500.
- Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped by 27,000, to 341,000, in the week ended 9 February. On a not-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell by 29,014, to 359,428.
- The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure of unemployment claims, rose to 352,500. The four-week moving average has been hovering near its lowest levels since March 2008.
- Continuing benefits programs reported 138,000 fewer claimants in the week ended 2 February, bringing the total down to 3.6 million. Regular benefits typically last for a period of 26 weeks; claimants are required to check in weekly to provide updates on their job search to receive compensation.
- Emergency unemployment compensation (EUC), which immediately follows the exhaustion of regular benefits, was provided to 2.08-million people in the week ended 26 January—an increase of 255,258, which nearly cancels out the previous week’s drop.
This week’s drop in jobless claims exceeded expectations. Indeed, claims seem to be following a definite downward trend. However, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo, it is hard to become optimistic about jobless claims’ effect on the February employment report. The survey period for the employment report overlaps with the aftermath of the blizzard, and thus reflects a pay week in which many Americans in the Northeast would not have been able to work.
The four-week moving average, which smoothes out volatility in weekly jobless claims, has been hovering near its lowest levels since March 2008—an encouraging sign. However, the recovery is still gathering momentum. The four-week moving average is down only 20,000 from a year ago. Meanwhile, the January unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%. According to the January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, more small firms are planning to hire.
The recent changes seen in emergency unemployment compensation and extended benefits data may reflect the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012. These programs had been slated to expire at the end of December, but were extended until the end of 2013 as part of the fiscal-cliff agreement. Continuing claims and initial claims were not affected by the fiscal-cliff deal. The only programs threatened by the cliff were those serving people who had been receiving unemployment benefits for upwards of 26 weeks.
January payroll employment was nothing special, at 157,000. Since the recent blizzard likely put a damper on February payroll employment growth, we expect the next report to come in between 125,000–150,000.
Excuse me if the newest dazzling data from the “Ministry of Truth” doesn’t impress me.
We have been adding over 300,000 a month to the unemployment lines for years, sooner or later we have to start running out people to add. That’s 4 million a year. This country should be ashamed of those numbers.
not surprising. there’s been an uptick in part timers as their hours get cut and they get hired on at second jobs.
Proof that more and more Americans have given up hope of ever finding a job again in this joint.