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Jobless claims drop exceeds expectations
Reuters via Chicago Tribune ^ | Reuters

Posted on 02/14/2013 6:19:25 AM PST by John W

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a continued steady improvement in labor market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 341,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims figure was revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 360,000.

A Labor Department analyst said claims for Illinois and snowstorm-hit Connecticut had been estimated. Nevertheless, because most claims are filed online, the blizzard that slammed the East Coast appeared to have little effect on the broader claims data, he said.

(Excerpt) Read more at chicagotribune.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: jobless; recovery; unemployment; unexpected

1 posted on 02/14/2013 6:19:29 AM PST by John W
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To: John W

how many were added to disability?


2 posted on 02/14/2013 6:22:13 AM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: John W

Oh, joy! Happy days are here again ping


3 posted on 02/14/2013 6:23:07 AM PST by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: John W

Comrades, celebrate as all is wonderful under the Dear Reader. That is an order.


4 posted on 02/14/2013 6:23:17 AM PST by ScottinVA (Gun control: Steady firm grip, target within sights, squeeze the trigger slowly...)
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To: John W

How many didn’t file because of the storm?


5 posted on 02/14/2013 6:25:32 AM PST by IMR 4350
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To: John W

It’s funny that when numbers are worse they blame the weather, but when the numbers are “better”, they don’t blame the weather.


6 posted on 02/14/2013 6:26:23 AM PST by woweeitsme
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To: John W
...the blizzard that slammed the East Coast appeared to have little effect on the broader claims data...

Hmmm... Prior to the election, we were told that hurricane Sandy was responsible for the increase in jobless claims that occurred that time.

7 posted on 02/14/2013 6:27:23 AM PST by kidd
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To: John W
How many states haven't reported?
8 posted on 02/14/2013 6:27:46 AM PST by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: woweeitsme

One good thing about Obama. He consistently lies anders the media YO fo so likewise. People have caught on and he has painted himself into a corner where almost no one believes him or the MSM anymore (well at least the people with functional brains).


9 posted on 02/14/2013 6:29:35 AM PST by jsanders2001
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To: woweeitsme

One good thing about Obama. He’s consistent. He consistently lies and orders the media to do so likewise. People have caught on and he has painted himself into a corner where almost no one believes him or the MSM anymore (well at least the people with functional brains).


10 posted on 02/14/2013 6:30:37 AM PST by jsanders2001
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To: ScottinVA

Republicans wake up and support American jobs.

Please.

The Dems are working against American interests, and the media is in bed with them to snow American readers.

The economy is falling apart.

Yet we see puff pieces like this, claiming things are somehow, in some dreamland “good”.

Things are not good. We are selling our souls to Chinese communists. Communists.

The Dems I expect to do so. Republicans however, should be patriotic.

Bring back American jobs. Stop building up our strongest enemy ever. Wake up people!


11 posted on 02/14/2013 6:30:44 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: John W

Estimate for a couple of states, and then “seasonally adjust” on top of that? Mumbo-jumbo squared.


12 posted on 02/14/2013 6:32:19 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: John W

In the Soviet Union they used to say no one was actually starving because tractor production was up. It was always up, up so much every man, woman, and child on the planet should have had their own tractor.

One reason first time applicants to unemployment insurance are always below expected is that the States cannot handle the load and have backlogs of applicants that wait up to 90 days to get processed for their claim.

Another interesting question, with all the people that have dropped out of working and with all the people that have already been laid off over the past 4 years, how come the numbers are still so high? Is it because everyone is working short time jobs like temporary or contract? There are actually fewer full time workers now.


13 posted on 02/14/2013 6:35:28 AM PST by CodeToad (Liberals are bloodsucking ticks. We need to light the matchstick to burn them off.)
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To: John W

There are 5 million less people with jobs today than at any time during the Presidency of George W. Bush.

The number of people with jobs in America has decreased steadily under Obama. His Presidency has never experienced a period of net job growth.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000


14 posted on 02/14/2013 6:36:50 AM PST by LucianOfSamasota (Tanstaafl - its not just for breakfast anymore...)
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To: John W

When jobs added exceeds jobs lost, that’ll be news.


15 posted on 02/14/2013 6:37:09 AM PST by carriage_hill (AR-10s & AR-15s Are The 21st Century's Muskets. Free Men Need Not Ask Permission!)
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To: John W
"A Labor Department analyst said claims for Illinois and snowstorm-hit Connecticut had been estimated."

So, we are seasonally adjusting number we just pull out of thin air. And then crowing about it. "The government further announced record wheat harvests this year"

16 posted on 02/14/2013 6:41:13 AM PST by circlecity
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To: EGPWS

43 out of 57.


17 posted on 02/14/2013 6:45:33 AM PST by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: John W
to a seasonally adjusted 341,000...

Exceeds expectations? What an Understatement!!

I was expecting the number to come in at 1,341,000 claims, so in my book, this was 1,000,000 BELOW my expectations... Congratulations are in order for a job well done, Happy days are here again

18 posted on 02/14/2013 6:49:32 AM PST by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: woweeitsme

Next week, when it is revised, that will be the excuse.


19 posted on 02/14/2013 6:50:22 AM PST by ican'tbelieveit (School is prison for children who have commited the crime of being born. (attr: St_Thomas_Aquinas))
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To: circlecity

Interesting that, last time they had a better than expected (drink!) report, they estimated California.

Illinois and California are both in about the same econimic straits.


20 posted on 02/14/2013 6:50:52 AM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (*Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alteration: The acronym explains the science.)
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To: John W

the more people drop out of the labor force, the better the obaconomy looks!

O happy days

Forget how many are unemployed- how many are employed?

Now if only the greedy rich would pick up their fair share of slack and pay those taxes that nonoworkers don’t pay


21 posted on 02/14/2013 7:03:40 AM PST by silverleaf (Age Takes a Toll: Please Have Exact Change)
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To: John W

The headline from another source:

Initial Claims Plunge As Department Of Labor “Estimates” Claims For Illinois, Conn.

A line from the subject article, titled “Jobless claims drop exceeds expectations”:

A Labor Department analyst said claims for Illinois and snowstorm-hit Connecticut had been estimated.

The bias is readlily apparent in the headlines. One praises the regime; the other questions it.


22 posted on 02/14/2013 7:08:20 AM PST by JimRed (Excise the cancer before it kills us; feed &water the Tree of Liberty! TERM LIMITS, NOW & FOREVER!)
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To: John W

this is why you look at the 4 week moving average which is 352,500. Kast time the 4 week MA was at this level was March 2008.


23 posted on 02/14/2013 7:21:39 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: John W

“Economists polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 360,000.”

They would never err on the side of caution...or dare I say OVERESTIMATE so that things would SEEM better.


24 posted on 02/14/2013 7:24:38 AM PST by Winstons Julia (Hello OWS? We don't need a revolution like China's; China needs a revolution like OURS.)
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To: John W
And in a related story...

Increase in applications for ObamaPhones,EBT cards and SSDI exceeds expectations.

25 posted on 02/14/2013 7:24:56 AM PST by Gay State Conservative ("Progressives" toss the word "racist" around like chimps toss their feces)
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To: John W; dead


26 posted on 02/14/2013 7:33:35 AM PST by Joe Brower (The "American People" are no longer capable of self-governance.)
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To: John W

“The prior week’s claims figure was revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported. “


27 posted on 02/14/2013 7:34:07 AM PST by headstamp 2 (What would Scooby do?)
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To: John W
Analysis from IHS Global insight

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell by 27,000, to 341,000, in the week ended 9 February. The four-week moving average ticked up 1,500, to 352,500.

- Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped by 27,000, to 341,000, in the week ended 9 February. On a not-seasonally adjusted basis, claims fell by 29,014, to 359,428.

- The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure of unemployment claims, rose to 352,500. The four-week moving average has been hovering near its lowest levels since March 2008.

- Continuing benefits programs reported 138,000 fewer claimants in the week ended 2 February, bringing the total down to 3.6 million. Regular benefits typically last for a period of 26 weeks; claimants are required to check in weekly to provide updates on their job search to receive compensation.

- Emergency unemployment compensation (EUC), which immediately follows the exhaustion of regular benefits, was provided to 2.08-million people in the week ended 26 January—an increase of 255,258, which nearly cancels out the previous week’s drop.

This week’s drop in jobless claims exceeded expectations. Indeed, claims seem to be following a definite downward trend. However, in the wake of Winter Storm Nemo, it is hard to become optimistic about jobless claims’ effect on the February employment report. The survey period for the employment report overlaps with the aftermath of the blizzard, and thus reflects a pay week in which many Americans in the Northeast would not have been able to work.

The four-week moving average, which smoothes out volatility in weekly jobless claims, has been hovering near its lowest levels since March 2008—an encouraging sign. However, the recovery is still gathering momentum. The four-week moving average is down only 20,000 from a year ago. Meanwhile, the January unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%. According to the January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, more small firms are planning to hire.

The recent changes seen in emergency unemployment compensation and extended benefits data may reflect the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012. These programs had been slated to expire at the end of December, but were extended until the end of 2013 as part of the fiscal-cliff agreement. Continuing claims and initial claims were not affected by the fiscal-cliff deal. The only programs threatened by the cliff were those serving people who had been receiving unemployment benefits for upwards of 26 weeks.

January payroll employment was nothing special, at 157,000. Since the recent blizzard likely put a damper on February payroll employment growth, we expect the next report to come in between 125,000–150,000.

28 posted on 02/14/2013 7:40:05 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: John W

Excuse me if the newest dazzling data from the “Ministry of Truth” doesn’t impress me.


29 posted on 02/14/2013 7:42:25 AM PST by fwdude ( You cannot compromise with that which you must defeat.)
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To: Puppage

-— Oh, joy! Happy days are here again ping ——

There’s so much good news, I’m getting tired of celebrating.

I’d prefer a job, though.


30 posted on 02/14/2013 7:46:16 AM PST by St_Thomas_Aquinas
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
I’d prefer a job, though.

Your job IS to celebrate, comrade. Another piece of cake, perhaps?

31 posted on 02/14/2013 8:07:19 AM PST by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: jiggyboy

Once any “adjustment” is made in a survey, the scientific validity of a truly random sample is destroyed.

Apparently the definition of a valid random sample has changed since I graduated from college.

EODGUY


32 posted on 02/14/2013 8:24:37 AM PST by EODGUY (Hold on to your copies of the Consititution of the United States. It is going to be re-written.)
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To: GeronL

how many were added to disability?””””

That & Illinois & Connecticut were ESTIMATES!!!!


33 posted on 02/14/2013 9:14:04 AM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: GeronL

“how many were added to disability?”

BINGO. The new gold mine is here.

60% for the fraudsters and
40% for the fraudulent lawyers

-100% for the Amerikan taxpayer


34 posted on 02/14/2013 10:04:32 AM PST by George from New England (escaped CT in 2006, now living north of Tampa)
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To: GeronL
how many were added to disability?

Seeing that this is the initial claims number, your question is largely irrelevant.

35 posted on 02/14/2013 10:18:08 AM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: EODGUY
Apparently the definition of a valid random sample has changed since I graduated from college.

Oh, there's a lot of that stuff across the landscape today.

Why do you think so few people see that the Emperor has no clothes?

Thank the educational establishment for that. Their main goal for many, many years has been the successful development and implementation of the "New Soviet Man", not the education and development of fresh young minds.

By the time the SHTF, an increasing number of people will start to see, slowly in more cases than not, that, education-wise, they've been sold a bill of goods. However, since their logic and problem-solving neural pathways have been stunted by lack of development in the formative years, their response to this growing insight is likely to be violence, egged on by a culture that festers in the politics of envy.

This is why I fear war is inevitable, and that, as things continue to go South, we'll be experiencing a quickening of that day's approach. This is why the Communists, uh Fascists, uh, I mean, Democrats are pushing so mightily for gun control now.

No matter how you view it, as Tom Cullen in "The Stand" so eloquently put it, "M-O-O-N, that spells trouble!"

CA....

36 posted on 02/14/2013 10:23:59 AM PST by Chances Are (Seems I've found that silly grin again....)
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To: John W

We have been adding over 300,000 a month to the unemployment lines for years, sooner or later we have to start running out people to add. That’s 4 million a year. This country should be ashamed of those numbers.


37 posted on 02/14/2013 10:35:20 AM PST by Lets Roll NOW (A baby isn't a punishment, Obama is)
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To: John W
If I'm reading this chart from the BLS correctly, there are around 822,000 jobs LESS than there were in January, 2009.
38 posted on 02/14/2013 5:42:42 PM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (Ho, ho, hey, hey, I'm BUYcotting Chick-Fil-A)
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To: John W; TwelveOfTwenty

I did read it incorrectly, that was 2012. In December, 2012, there were about 461,000 jobs more than there were in January, 2009.


39 posted on 02/14/2013 5:47:32 PM PST by TwelveOfTwenty (Ho, ho, hey, hey, I'm BUYcotting Chick-Fil-A)
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To: John W

not surprising. there’s been an uptick in part timers as their hours get cut and they get hired on at second jobs.


40 posted on 02/14/2013 6:06:37 PM PST by newzjunkey (bah)
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To: jsanders2001

Growing up, I always wondered what it was like living in Russia....starting to get the picture now.


41 posted on 02/15/2013 4:13:20 PM PST by RS_Rider (I hate Illinois Nazis)
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To: newzjunkey

Yes you’ve identified correctly that the “29ers” trend is actually beneficial for the employment stats.

Terms not seen in the MSM since Jan 2009:

“McJobs”
“Recovery for Wall $treet but not Main Street”
“Homeless problem”


42 posted on 02/15/2013 4:19:20 PM PST by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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To: John W

Proof that more and more Americans have given up hope of ever finding a job again in this joint.


43 posted on 02/15/2013 9:27:55 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Now Playing. Obama II - The Revenge of My Father.)
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