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CBO: THE DEFICIT WILL SHRINK MASSIVELY IN COMING YEARS
Business Insider ^ | 02/05/2013 | Sam Ro

Posted on 02/05/2013 11:07:51 AM PST by SeekAndFind

cbo deficit projection

CBO

The CBO has just published its Budget and Economic Outlook.

The big headline: the CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year.  This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years.

They also estimate that the deficit falls to $616 billion in 2014 and as low as $430 billion in 2015.

They assume unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014.  They also assume GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013 accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2014.

Here are the CBO's long-term budget projections:

cbo deficit projection

CBO


And here are the economic projections:

cbo economic projection

CBO

Download the full report here.

Below is the CBO's statement:
========================

The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023

Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7½ percent through next year; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7½ percent of the labor force—the longest such period in the past 70 years.


(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: budget; cbo; deficit
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1 posted on 02/05/2013 11:07:56 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

GI GO?


2 posted on 02/05/2013 11:11:06 AM PST by citizen (We get the government we choose. America either voted for Obama or handed it to him by not voting.)
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To: SeekAndFind

In related news, the CBO is offering beachfront property in Arizona for sale.


3 posted on 02/05/2013 11:11:24 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: SeekAndFind

These people are seldom correct. This has no value.


4 posted on 02/05/2013 11:11:48 AM PST by phormer phrog phlyer
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To: SeekAndFind

Apparently, sniffing unicorn farts has become a requirement to publish a government report.


5 posted on 02/05/2013 11:12:26 AM PST by taxcontrol
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To: SeekAndFind

How can one generate a projected report of a budget outcome, when no budget has been done in 4+ years?


6 posted on 02/05/2013 11:14:31 AM PST by Lucky9teen (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading.~Thomas Jeffer)
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To: SeekAndFind

The CBO also claimed that Obamacare would reduce the deficit and would only cost $940,000,000,00 per year. Who would be dumb enough to believe ANY of their predictions after that? They are a thoroughly discredited institution.


7 posted on 02/05/2013 11:15:09 AM PST by vikingd00d (chown -R us ./base)
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To: SeekAndFind
Photobucket
8 posted on 02/05/2013 11:15:53 AM PST by CMailBag
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To: taxcontrol

$430 Billion is LOW?!!!!


9 posted on 02/05/2013 11:16:02 AM PST by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sure just like Obama will announce his resignation any day now.


10 posted on 02/05/2013 11:16:07 AM PST by ColdOne (I miss my poochie... Tasha 2000~3/14/11)
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To: SeekAndFind

Can we hold them to this, and if they are off by 10% ( I am being generous) then get a pledge from every damn Dem to commit seppuku if they are off by over 10% ?


11 posted on 02/05/2013 11:16:23 AM PST by GraceG
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To: SeekAndFind

In 2004 they projected we’d be in surplus in 2012.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/60xx/doc6060/01-25-budgetoutlook.pdf


12 posted on 02/05/2013 11:17:26 AM PST by DManA
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To: SeekAndFind

If this happen all bets off
by preventing the 25 percent cut in Medicare’s payment rates for physicians that is due to occur in 2014. If, for instance, lawmakers eliminated the automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect in March (but left in place the original caps on discretionary funding set by the Budget Control Act), prevented the sharp reduction in Medicare’s payment rates for physicians, and extended the tax provisions that are scheduled to expire at the end of calendar year 2013 (or, in some cases, in later years), budget deficits would be substantially larger over the coming decade than in CBO’s baseline projections. With those changes, and no offsetting reductions in deficits, debt held by the public would rise to 87 percent of GDP by the end of 2023 rather than to 77 percent.


13 posted on 02/05/2013 11:17:56 AM PST by wmap
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, heck, if the president and the Democrats socialize the United States, as they plan to do, so that we have a policy of “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs,” we can eliminate the budget deficit any time.

However, history has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that communism doesn’t work, and a system of kleptocracy ruins an economy in short order, at the same time as it produces a citizenry which hates its government Masters to promote their own power and privilege.


14 posted on 02/05/2013 11:19:08 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree with this CBO statement completely. It is absolutely correct.

When the economy and dollar collapse and we Zimbabwe-ize, the deficit will tend towards zero. The debt will remain wherever it is on that day - $16 or $17 Trillion or more. Of course, the GDP will be trending to zero as well.


15 posted on 02/05/2013 11:21:52 AM PST by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: SeekAndFind

CBO projections are a joke, as they all begin with the marching orders, “Assuming all of our predictions are correct and no unintended consequences ever occur, ...”


16 posted on 02/05/2013 11:22:09 AM PST by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: SeekAndFind

How the he11 can they make that kind of call????

Is there something to Keynesian math that makes this possible?

Are they using a fortune teller?

Maybe JJ Abrams is on board with the CBO, and has enlisted a time traveler...


17 posted on 02/05/2013 11:22:48 AM PST by petro45acp (No good endeavour survives an excess of adult supervision)
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To: SeekAndFind

What kind of dope are these people at CBO snorting or shooting or smoking?


18 posted on 02/05/2013 11:23:15 AM PST by MasterGunner01
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To: SeekAndFind

Future headline: Deficit Rises Unexpectedly


19 posted on 02/05/2013 11:23:33 AM PST by BinaryBoy (Socialism is slavery)
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To: SeekAndFind

The year is still young, and Obama has only begun to spend.


20 posted on 02/05/2013 11:23:45 AM PST by pallis
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To: SeekAndFind

And monkeys will fly out of my butt.


21 posted on 02/05/2013 11:23:50 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t trust the graph. It shows debt to GDP at 80% right now...and its over 100%.

I bet they are ignoring the social security debt owed by the public to the SS Trust fund.....and that probably means they are ignoring the annual shortfall in the trust fund itself.

And, if I were a betting man, I’d say they have done the same ommission with Medicare.


22 posted on 02/05/2013 11:26:38 AM PST by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: SeekAndFind

why even have the CBO? They’re always wrong. Any other person/company would have been fired a long time ago if they were as wrong as the CBO is.


23 posted on 02/05/2013 11:26:59 AM PST by BookmanTheJanitor
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To: SeekAndFind

Good grief. This is so lacking in credibility, I don’t know where to start.


24 posted on 02/05/2013 11:27:15 AM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: SeekAndFind
THE DEFICIT WILL SHRINK MASSIVELY IN COMING YEARS

25 posted on 02/05/2013 11:27:56 AM PST by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: citizen

Completely. They assume things not in evidence.


26 posted on 02/05/2013 11:29:25 AM PST by CodeToad (Liberals are bloodsucking ticks. We need to light the matchstick to burn them off.)
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To: MasterGunner01
Don't know but I wants me some!

They seem much happier and more optimistic about the future than I am.

27 posted on 02/05/2013 11:30:23 AM PST by Aevery_Freeman (Proud Thought Criminal since 1984)
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To: SeekAndFind

Is this based on current law? (sequestration takes effect March 2013 unless Congress acts)


28 posted on 02/05/2013 11:31:12 AM PST by noexcuses
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To: Aevery_Freeman

I wants to know! Where can I get me some of that Oxycontin that they be using.


29 posted on 02/05/2013 11:32:15 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind

Future headline:

“Deficits Grow Unexpectedly”


30 posted on 02/05/2013 11:32:25 AM PST by Pollster1
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To: vikingd00d
They are a thoroughly discredited institution

My understanding is that they're required to go off what the Congress gives them.

So yes, they're discredited. But only because they're not getting numbers based in reality to begin with.

31 posted on 02/05/2013 11:33:11 AM PST by wbill
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To: SeekAndFind

32 posted on 02/05/2013 11:33:27 AM PST by Uncle Miltie (Of the government, by the government, and for the government.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Someone forgot the humor tag.


33 posted on 02/05/2013 11:34:07 AM PST by Hattie
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To: SeekAndFind

The CBO was off by $300B on its Obamacare cost estimates. All it can offer is a snapshot-in-time glimpse based on whatever info this regime hands it.


34 posted on 02/05/2013 11:35:37 AM PST by ScottinVA (Gun control: Steady firm grip, target within sights, squeeze the trigger slowly...)
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To: phormer phrog phlyer
I can see this happening in dollar terms if we follow the example of 1923 Wiemar Germany: Hyperinflation followed by lopping six zeros off the price and value of everything.
35 posted on 02/05/2013 11:35:40 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-05/cbo-releases-latest-budget-forecast-hilarity-ensues

CBO Releases Latest Budget Forecast: Hilarity Ensues


36 posted on 02/05/2013 11:41:42 AM PST by ltc8k6
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To: wmap

“With those changes, and no offsetting reductions in deficits, debt held by the public would rise to 87 percent of GDP by the end of 2023 rather than to 77 percent.”

I thought the National Debt was already at >100% of GDP. Or are we talking about different things?


37 posted on 02/05/2013 11:48:15 AM PST by PLMerite (Shut the Beyotch Down! Burn, baby, burn!)
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To: SeekAndFind

But, of course, we will still be quite bankrupt and it won’t really matter any more whether there is a deficit or not. Title to all of the assets in the nation will be held by Russians and Chinese and etc. Shrinking the deficit is not an improvement. End the deficit. Balance the budget this year and then shrink the government sufficient to begin the Great Payback. Then there is some hope that the country has an economic future other than to third world status and economically colonized.


38 posted on 02/05/2013 11:49:11 AM PST by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE www.fee.org/library/books/economics-in-one-lesson)
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To: SeekAndFind

3.6% GDP growth 2015-18....

LMFAO!!!!!!!!


39 posted on 02/05/2013 11:49:51 AM PST by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Izzy Dunne

.....and by their own #’s, the deficit starts going bonkers again........approaching $1,000,000,000,000 in 2023.

Move along. These are the debts you’re looking for.


40 posted on 02/05/2013 11:51:18 AM PST by tnvol01 ("...answering that question w/ specificity uh, you know, is, is, uh above my pay grade.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Government programs always cost more than projected; cost overruns on government contracts are the norm; the government always spends more year-over-year; economic projections invariably are rosier than ultimate reality . . . but the CBO says the deficit will narrow going forward. How quaint.


41 posted on 02/05/2013 11:51:41 AM PST by AtlasStalled
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To: phormer phrog phlyer

They are not correct because they are lied to and fed “rosy scenarios” all the time.
They are not correct here, either.


42 posted on 02/05/2013 11:54:44 AM PST by Little Ray (Waiting for the return of the Gods of the Copybook Headings.)
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To: AtlasStalled
 photo obamaeconomyworld_zpsaf2f7f95.jpg
43 posted on 02/05/2013 11:56:38 AM PST by timestax (AMERICAN MEDIA= DOMESTIC ENEMY)
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To: SeekAndFind
CBO estimates are like any government estimate. for instance if the Defense Dept announces a new fighter plane is to be built and they say it will cost 1x number of dollars before all is said it done it will be 2x or more.

Example the F-22 was slated to cost around 177 Million per aircraft. The final cost is over 339 million per aircraft.

In other words its all bunk!

44 posted on 02/05/2013 11:58:24 AM PST by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hmmm, the cover letter to the CBO report begins, “Once upon a time . . .”


45 posted on 02/05/2013 11:58:57 AM PST by choirboy
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To: SeekAndFind

I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....


46 posted on 02/05/2013 12:00:44 PM PST by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: SeekAndFind

I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....


47 posted on 02/05/2013 12:00:58 PM PST by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: SeekAndFind

The numbers for 2013 might not be too far off. We might not be too far under 1.4% growth. For 2014 forward, it’s comedy night.


48 posted on 02/05/2013 12:05:19 PM PST by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: Izzy Dunne

That guy was way more credible and entertaining than Jay Carney.


49 posted on 02/05/2013 12:07:29 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

This must be what it was like to live in the Soviet Union and read Pravda and Izvestia.


50 posted on 02/05/2013 12:16:14 PM PST by Count of Monte Fisto
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