Posted on 02/05/2013 11:07:51 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The CBO has just published its Budget and Economic Outlook.The big headline: the CBO expects the U.S. budget deficit to fall to $845 billion this year. This would be the first reading under $1 trillion in five years.
They also estimate that the deficit falls to $616 billion in 2014 and as low as $430 billion in 2015.
They assume unemployment rates of 8.0 percent in 2013 and 7.6 percent in 2014. They also assume GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2013 accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2014.
Here are the CBO's long-term budget projections:
And here are the economic projections:
CBO
Download the full report here.
Below is the CBO's statement:
========================
Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7½ percent through next year; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7½ percent of the labor force—the longest such period in the past 70 years.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
GI GO?
In related news, the CBO is offering beachfront property in Arizona for sale.
These people are seldom correct. This has no value.
Apparently, sniffing unicorn farts has become a requirement to publish a government report.
How can one generate a projected report of a budget outcome, when no budget has been done in 4+ years?
The CBO also claimed that Obamacare would reduce the deficit and would only cost $940,000,000,00 per year. Who would be dumb enough to believe ANY of their predictions after that? They are a thoroughly discredited institution.
$430 Billion is LOW?!!!!
Sure just like Obama will announce his resignation any day now.
Can we hold them to this, and if they are off by 10% ( I am being generous) then get a pledge from every damn Dem to commit seppuku if they are off by over 10% ?
In 2004 they projected we’d be in surplus in 2012.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/60xx/doc6060/01-25-budgetoutlook.pdf
If this happen all bets off
by preventing the 25 percent cut in Medicare’s payment rates for physicians that is due to occur in 2014. If, for instance, lawmakers eliminated the automatic spending cuts scheduled to take effect in March (but left in place the original caps on discretionary funding set by the Budget Control Act), prevented the sharp reduction in Medicare’s payment rates for physicians, and extended the tax provisions that are scheduled to expire at the end of calendar year 2013 (or, in some cases, in later years), budget deficits would be substantially larger over the coming decade than in CBO’s baseline projections. With those changes, and no offsetting reductions in deficits, debt held by the public would rise to 87 percent of GDP by the end of 2023 rather than to 77 percent.
Well, heck, if the president and the Democrats socialize the United States, as they plan to do, so that we have a policy of “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs,” we can eliminate the budget deficit any time.
However, history has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that communism doesn’t work, and a system of kleptocracy ruins an economy in short order, at the same time as it produces a citizenry which hates its government Masters to promote their own power and privilege.
I agree with this CBO statement completely. It is absolutely correct.
When the economy and dollar collapse and we Zimbabwe-ize, the deficit will tend towards zero. The debt will remain wherever it is on that day - $16 or $17 Trillion or more. Of course, the GDP will be trending to zero as well.
CBO projections are a joke, as they all begin with the marching orders, “Assuming all of our predictions are correct and no unintended consequences ever occur, ...”
How the he11 can they make that kind of call????
Is there something to Keynesian math that makes this possible?
Are they using a fortune teller?
Maybe JJ Abrams is on board with the CBO, and has enlisted a time traveler...
What kind of dope are these people at CBO snorting or shooting or smoking?
Future headline: Deficit Rises Unexpectedly
The year is still young, and Obama has only begun to spend.
And monkeys will fly out of my butt.
I don’t trust the graph. It shows debt to GDP at 80% right now...and its over 100%.
I bet they are ignoring the social security debt owed by the public to the SS Trust fund.....and that probably means they are ignoring the annual shortfall in the trust fund itself.
And, if I were a betting man, I’d say they have done the same ommission with Medicare.
why even have the CBO? They’re always wrong. Any other person/company would have been fired a long time ago if they were as wrong as the CBO is.
Good grief. This is so lacking in credibility, I don’t know where to start.
Completely. They assume things not in evidence.
They seem much happier and more optimistic about the future than I am.
Is this based on current law? (sequestration takes effect March 2013 unless Congress acts)
I wants to know! Where can I get me some of that Oxycontin that they be using.
Future headline:
“Deficits Grow Unexpectedly”
My understanding is that they're required to go off what the Congress gives them.
So yes, they're discredited. But only because they're not getting numbers based in reality to begin with.
Someone forgot the humor tag.
The CBO was off by $300B on its Obamacare cost estimates. All it can offer is a snapshot-in-time glimpse based on whatever info this regime hands it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-05/cbo-releases-latest-budget-forecast-hilarity-ensues
CBO Releases Latest Budget Forecast: Hilarity Ensues
“With those changes, and no offsetting reductions in deficits, debt held by the public would rise to 87 percent of GDP by the end of 2023 rather than to 77 percent.”
I thought the National Debt was already at >100% of GDP. Or are we talking about different things?
But, of course, we will still be quite bankrupt and it won’t really matter any more whether there is a deficit or not. Title to all of the assets in the nation will be held by Russians and Chinese and etc. Shrinking the deficit is not an improvement. End the deficit. Balance the budget this year and then shrink the government sufficient to begin the Great Payback. Then there is some hope that the country has an economic future other than to third world status and economically colonized.
3.6% GDP growth 2015-18....
LMFAO!!!!!!!!
.....and by their own #’s, the deficit starts going bonkers again........approaching $1,000,000,000,000 in 2023.
Move along. These are the debts you’re looking for.
Government programs always cost more than projected; cost overruns on government contracts are the norm; the government always spends more year-over-year; economic projections invariably are rosier than ultimate reality . . . but the CBO says the deficit will narrow going forward. How quaint.
They are not correct because they are lied to and fed “rosy scenarios” all the time.
They are not correct here, either.
Example the F-22 was slated to cost around 177 Million per aircraft. The final cost is over 339 million per aircraft.
In other words its all bunk!
Hmmm, the cover letter to the CBO report begins, “Once upon a time . . .”
I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....
I checked the deficit figure for Oct, Nov and Dec. The total is $378B. Annualized, FY 13 deficit will be higher than FY12. Also in every article, the monthly deficit exceeded last years number and exceed expectations.....
The numbers for 2013 might not be too far off. We might not be too far under 1.4% growth. For 2014 forward, it’s comedy night.
That guy was way more credible and entertaining than Jay Carney.
This must be what it was like to live in the Soviet Union and read Pravda and Izvestia.
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