There ain't no such thing as "free power", unless you're talking about using one of these...
Posted on 02/04/2013 11:41:37 PM PST by grundle
Big Milestone Tesla keeps proving the skeptics wrong. For years we've heard all kinds of arguments explaining why they couldn't possibly succeed, and why they wouldn't deliver what they promised, how the auto industry was too hard to break into, etc. From the first promo pics of the Tesla Roadster in July 2006 to now, every time Tesla hits a new milestone, the naysayers go something like: "Well, they did this thing, but they won't get to this next thing." So I'll be curious to see what they'll come up with now that its been revealed that Tesla's factory has now reached its goal of producing Model S electric sedans at a rate of 20,000 a year, or 400 a week.
This is a big deal because economies of scale; that is, the more you make of something, the less it costs you per unit because you can amortize your fixed costs over more products and you have more bargaining power with your suppliers. This is a big part of Tesla's strategy. It'll also help clear their backlog of orders, which have piled up to around 13,000-15,000, and promise faster deliveries to new customers (some people might be deciding against the Model S because of the long waiting lists).
Another change is that so far, Tesla has only been making the more expensive top-of-the-line 85kWh model. It will now have the production capacity to start making 60kWh models too, filling some of those orders.
The company is also working hard on the Model X release, which should happen in mid to late 2014. Automotive News reports:
The Model X development is undergoing the transformation from the functional initial prototype that was unveiled last year to a production-ready prototype. The company will be making final decisions on the interior and exterior dimensions of the car in the first quarter of 2013, Musk said in an interview.
A key part of the Model X will be its dual-motor all-wheel drive system, which Musk predicted would give the crossover "the best road handling of any car in the world."
And after that the next step will be a new model based on a third platform, closer in size to a BMW 3 and with a price around 30,000-35,000. This should be released in 3-4 years, and could be a major breakthrough for electric cars in my opinion, especially if the Supercharger network of fast-charging stations that provide free power grows all around the country and the world.
Do you have $60-80,000 to pay for an electric car? The Nissan Leaf, backed up by a major multinational company, is only about $19,000.
How does the Nissan Leaf compare with the Tesla—performance cost of charging, speed of charging, range, etc? Depending on the answers in 3 or 4 years I might find $35K interesting.
There's the answer! Free Power! Along with Free Housing, Free Food, and Free Medical Care, we'll be All Set. Well, with Free TV and Free Internet, of course.
Free power? Perhaps it is free if you pay for it years in advance, when you buy the car. Even then it's not likely to be free. Even if the raw power is somehow free, the maintenance of the network isn't.
EVs are good vehicles for a very rich country where citizens don't have even a single worry in their lives and who can easily pay $30-40K for a car. I don't know where such a country might be located; I suspect it's not in this Universe. The USA is mired in one recession after another, jobs are disappearing, taxes are rising - and these guys pop up and offer a car that not every millionaire can afford. A car that doesn't have any advantage over the gasoline car at this time.
The customer benefits from buying an EV as late as possible because the technology is bound to improve; and perhaps within a few years we may get a usable EV that is not as hobbled as today's EVs. But today there isn't anything on the EV market that would make sense to buy. There are EVs, and you can buy one or two, but it would be simply an act of charity toward inventors and businessmen who work on EVs.
The market of EVs will rise only when a common man can run the numbers and say "yes, this will save me money right now." Sell those EVs today for $10K and they will be gladly bought, with all their problems, because the price would match the value. Today's EVs are short range, city cars, you use them if your daily mileage is 20-30 miles at most. However they cost so much that you cannot cover enough miles in any reasonable time to realize the savings on gas. If you start driving them far then you will lose too much time charging them every 100 miles (if you can find a charger, that is.) EVs today are specialty cars, for a very narrow niche - and they are a poor fit even there.
I understand that without someone working on EVs we will never get one. However we don't practice jumping just because we want to visit the Moon. You make a simple calculation on the back of the envelope and discover that jumping will not work. The same should apply to EVs. You calculate what a battery can do, you calculate what it will cost, and you then stop right there and say to yourself: "Self, this is a ridiculous price. Hardly anyone will buy. Why don't you do something else until the situation changes?" But no, they went ahead, built cars, and now wonder how to sell them. That's a thought that should have visited them far earlier.
No such thing.
The Leaf is $39,000, not $19,000. That’s almost Volt territory, without having a Gasoline Engine just in case.
I think I’d rather get a “free” Hoveround from Medicare, if I was on Medicare of course.
No matter what the cost on these things the fact is they are status symbols.
The lower end market of electric vehicles is for people who already have cars but are looking for a status symbol.
At the higher end of the market, where you find Tesla and Fisker, you find more exclusivity and flashing the car “You can’t have, cuz you can’t even afford the price tag”.
Still, I was at the grocery store on Friday and a Tesla snuck up on me. Mind you, I’ve sat in both vehicles, which have showrooms at our local mall and was impressed with how luxurious and feature rich these vehicle contain.
If I didn’t like fast cars I could take anywhere I’d get a Tesla or Fisker myself.
But, I didn’t hear that Tesla sneak up on me....at all.
Quiet at a church mouse...
The back of the envelope calcs for current EV technology is you use extremely rare and therefore expensive materials to save using plentiful and cheap ones.
The math won’t work unless the two sides are reversed.
Not even close. I’ve been in the Leaf, Tesla and Fiskar.
If I had loot to blow on something I didn’t care about, I’d get a Tesla or Fiskar.
If I lived in the Magic Kingdom or the World of Make-Believe I might be interested in one of these.
This is shocking news!
Free is when you don’t have to pay for nothing or do nothing.
Not just that, but the charging capacity degrades much faster than an engine would wear out.
That must have been pretty cool seeing it go up and down the isles.
There ain't no such thing as "free power", unless you're talking about using one of these...
Tesla makes nice looking cars. The Leaf is about as attractive as a painted turd.
100% electric?
Bull...it’s coal powered...
A few cars after 465 Million in US government loans. A rolling Solyndra, thats all it is.
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