Joe W. has been banging this drum for years - and has been wrong for years. The day we have real positive interest rates is the day the US goes broke or devalues the currency. Interest rates cannot be allowed to rise since the debt is unpayable. As long as we have negative real rates, gold will be strong.
Since inflation is really running at 8-10%, it's pretty unlikely that interest rates will exceed inflation, as they would be doing if the government wasn't manipulating the rates and the currency.
We're not much better off than Japan. We get any genuine rate increases and the government is up the creek, big time. We are already borrowing money to pay the interest on the existing debt. Well, not exactly. No one is really even loaning us money, the fed is printing and "buying" most of the debt. It's like sticking a hose up your arse and expecting to live by breathing your own farts. Suicidal.
I agree with everything you've said.
I've read that if interest rates go up by two percent, TS(will)HTF.
If we begin to have any sort of recovery, interest rates will go up. So...some self-limiting things going on.