They have projected what the numbers will be out to 2016. Having been involved in these fanciful projections at various companies I can tell you that they seldom represent reality. They’re driven by what the top approver believes is politically acceptable to his boss. In other words they’re tinted rose colored. In some cases they’re candy-coated and spray-painted rose. Almost always reality is much worse.
If they’re projecting they need to get rid of 6500, it will probably be many more than 6500. Typically, they fail to take into account the other market players who will sense blood in the water and attack. VW, for example, seems much more capable than Renault and has developed a common platform from which all their future models will be made, thus reducing costs and increasing profits. I’ve read of nothing similar from Renault. So they may lose even more marketshare, thus moving their breakeven point. The socialist government and the unions will want them to keep hiring and paying workers even if those workers don’t work. This could break Renault.