Well, if he’s such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?
“Well, if he’s such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?”
No, markets only work when their are those who make predictions that turn out to be wrong. Those players who are best at analyzing data usually make the more accurate predictions and win most of the time.
Eventually, those who are inferior at analyzing data will wash out of the market and those who are best will thrive.
In the end, maybe 5-10% of the players will truly succeed and all other players will perish or hardly survive.
Even those who are best at analyzing data and making predictions are wrong once in a while.
If I were to bet on someone predicting which baseball prospects will be the best MLB players, who will win an election, or who will execute the best trading strategies or who will win the most money at poker, I will go with Nate Silver.
Well, if he’s such a wizard, and his predictions are so golden, I guess you and the rest of us can just quit working and make an outstanding living just betting his predictions, right?
There was money to be made on Intrade (not any more :-( )