Eve of Disaster - Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913, on the cusp of the Great War.

Foreign Policy via Indian Strategic Studies ^ | January 4, 2013 | CHARLES EMMERSON

[GOPJ]

To the historically minded, the recurrence of particular themes, or particular rhymes, through history -- human greed, the manipulation of technology, the importance of geography in determining military outcomes, the power of belief in shaping politics, a solid conviction that this time is different -- is no surprise. You thought that the debt-fueled boom of the 2000s was different from all those other booms throughout history? Wrong. The ancient Greeks, with their understanding of greed, self-deception, hubris, and nemesis, would have been quite able to interpret the 2008 financial crisis without the need for an advanced degree in financial astrophysics from Harvard Business School. You thought pacifying Afghanistan would be a piece of cake because we have laser-guided munitions and drones these days? Not so much. You think that globalization is destined to continue forever, that interstate war is impossible, and that the onward march of democracy is ineluctable? Hang on a second; isn't that what people thought in 1913?

The crucial point about the world 100 years ago, then, is not that it is identical to the world today -- it isn't -- but that there was a time, in the not-so-distant past, when a globalized world, not entirely dissimilar to our own, fell apart. And it wasn't because human societies were in the grip of the uncontrollable forces of destiny or that they were particularly dumb. Most just didn't expect things to pan out the way they did. People actually living through the year 1913 did not experience those 12 months as the moody prelude to catastrophe. In retrospect, there were storm clouds on the horizon. But at the time, many people found themselves living through the best of times -- or simply had other things to think about.

ping

[justa-hairyape]

It is similar to both situations. And we know what happened in both cases. But this next world war will be the last fought by the generic human species. Remember what Einstein said about WWIII and WWIV. Perhaps in another million years the next dominant species will eventually be facing the same crisis. The question is will the next dominant species be sourced from mutated human DNA or perhaps mutated lizard DNA. Think it would be interesting if the radiation pouring into the sea from Fukushima causes Dolphins to develop arms and legs. They are perhaps the one species on the planet that has a chance to exit the madhouse, but hey, I am a Douglas Adams fan.

[GOPJ]

The crucial point about the world 100 years ago, then, is not that it is identical to the world today -- it isn't -- but that there was a time, in the not-so-distant past, when a globalized world, not entirely dissimilar to our own, fell apart. And it wasn't because human societies were in the grip of the uncontrollable forces of destiny or that they were particularly dumb. Most just didn't expect things to pan out the way they did. People actually living through the year 1913 did not experience those 12 months as the moody prelude to catastrophe. In retrospect, there were storm clouds on the horizon. But at the time, many people found themselves living through the best of times -- or simply had other things to think about.

Forewarned matters... ping. Read it all - worth the time.

[bert]

While 2013 might be the year of a great war, there is no real, meaningful parallel to WW I. The 20th century was all about the final desolation of the major monarchies and the establishment of new governments.

It is not over yet. Russia is still struggling. China is not yet recovered. Egypt is in turmoil.

The next great war, actually already underway for 20 years, is with radical Islam. While the west is in the throes of Repudiation, casting off religion, much of of Islam is engaged in a battle for Restoration. The west has become the enemy in order to have a bag to punch while stirring up anger and disruption at home.

The writer got his daily quota of words but they are but so much speculative balderdash.

Bert’s three R’s........ Reformation, Repudiation, Restoration. History is largely about them and the 4th..... Rennaissance

[darrellmaurina]

15 posted on Mon Jan 07 2013 10:10:52 GMT-0600 (Central Standard Time) by DuncanWaring: “In the case of the Japanese, would that change in thinking have occurred had not nearly their entire country been burned to the ground?”

It seems patently obvious that even **AFTER** the mass devastation of Japanese cities and industry, the Japanese would never have surrendered without the decision of the Emperor to do so. That nation, from the lowly peasant to the highest general, gave every appearance well into 1945 of being willing to die in a last-ditch defense of the Home Islands. The mass suicides at Okinawa were likely only a foretaste of what was coming if the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki had not worked and if we had been forced to invade.

Nations, like alcoholics, sometimes have to hit bottom to decide they need to change course.

I think a reasonable case can be made that Mao, by unifying most of China under a single central government, and then destroying much of his country's traditional elites in academic, religious, military and cultural affairs, and then with the Red Brigades showing to pretty much everyone the utter bankruptcy of Maoist ideals of agrarian Communism, made his own country “hit bottom” in ways that caused Chinese leaders to look to the West to find a system which worked economically while preserving social unity and government control.

But then again, understanding the “inscrutable oriental” has not always been the easiest task for Western minds, and we have found our failures to be catastrophic at times.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks neverdem.

https://twitter.com/charlesemmerson%2BCHARLES+EMMERSON

...Charles Emmerson has also written articles for the Financial Times, Monocle, The Huffington Post and other media outlets...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/06/charles-emmerson-future-arctic?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/its_not_just_about_climate_change

http://www.ewi.info/charles-emmerson-future-history-arctic

[1010RD]

Well said.

[OneWingedShark]

We also have the 113th congress

Irrelevant to the number 13 -- it is not [evenly] divisible by 13, as your line of reasoning would indicate it must be.

and astronomically a amazing phenomenon has put the earths/sun solar system beginning 12-21-2012 into its 13th orbit around Sirius since the dawn of time.

While astronomically interesting, what's the point of your saying so? Or do you mean to use astrology in interpretation of the bible?