Why do they agree in trend up to 2010?
Is there a change in the U.3 and U.6 calcs at this time that explains the divergence?
The difference between Shadowstats’ unemployment number and the official u6 is “estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994.”
So the divergence in trend that started in 2010 is apparently an increase in the percent of long term discouraged workers. And that explanation actually make sense. I’m sure that category has grown in this economy. There is a month to month commentary on the shadowstats.com website.