I seem to remember lots of talk here for the past three years about how Republicans will going to take back the Senate and the WH in 2012. Rush and others were fueling this by claiming that Democrats would not come out and vote.
He was also saying that all the polls were rigged and most Americans naturally sided with Rs over Ds, that was repeated here.
Now it is true that winning lots of House Seats is different than the WH or Senate, that many of these smaller districts are gerry-mandered into either solid D or R. So it is not unlikely that Rs lose a few more House Seats and run the House by a very slim majority in 2016 for Os final years, with him keeping the Senate.
So this means the congress wont function except to pass popular spending bills like this disaster aid bill.
In many cases it wont be bad, like O wants gun control and amnesty so those will hopefully die in the senate. But O will do his best to use executive orders which wont be challenged by new laws.
But whenever a huge crisis deadline comes up like all taxes go up, or the Debt limit, or a shutdown, Bohner will just pass whatever the Reid Senate dictates after he cant get House Rs behind him, which he wont because they cant even agree on what they want.('we want spending cuts, except...')
And they will complain again, but no one was willing to step up to the plate to take his job. That wont happen till Pelosi takes the House back because then opposing everything becomes an election winner again as in 2010.
As I’ve said before I find it exceedingly unlikely the rats will be gaining House seats in 2014. I know you look at the big picture but I look at it seat by seat.
Basically history says if Obama has 65% approval they will gain 5 seats tops. A repeat of 1998. This is the nightmare scenario. Do you really see that swine having those kinds of numbers? Congressional disapproval will not matter it’s all about the President.
There is only 1 specific seat I worry about right now, California 31 held by Gary Miller, he probably would have lost 2 months ago if he had faced a democrat and not another Republican. Obama won it by 16/17 points, actually it was slightly worse than the 2008 numbers. Cali sucks. That’s the only Republican held seat in either chamber that we start off at a disadvantage in.
Auh2orepublican lists seat in the northeast that are competitive but I doubt most of these will be seeing close races in 2014, only the 3 of the ones in NY did this past election.
We have a decent list of targets, a few Romney districts that quite disgustingly split their tickets. 3 in Arizona that were super close (2 Romney, 1 Obama) giving the rats an unnatural majority in the delegation.
As for the Senate, we need 6, no guarantee, 2012 was a clusterf88k. We have more than enough targets though, early it’s looking good with top candidates in WV, SD and MA if Brown decides to run again.