Yup. With demographic changes occurring at the present pace, in not long we will not be able to win a national election. Heck, in not very long we won't even be able to win statewide in places like Texas and Arizona.
Judging from some of the reaction it seems like many people on our side simply don't want to hear that though.
The problem is going to be tough nut to crack too. Caving on things like Immigration won't help us. These minority voters simply do not hold the same beliefs we do about government. Put simply, they want free stuff. Further, identity politics work and work well. The Democrats and media have done a good job selling minorities on the idea that we dislike them - and unfortunately, too many conservatives end up speaking in a way that reinforces that stereotype.
We are going to have to reach these people in a whole new way - particularly Asians and Hispanics. Blacks we can probably write off as there is little hope for them. We are going to need to run Hispanic and Asian candidates at every opportunity, get into the communities, network, host events for new Asian/Hispanic citizens, major outreach, etc. This is the stuff Democrats already do and Republicans don't bother with. We need to tailor our conservative messages to them as well.
Good comments.
The Asian one really blows me away because at least in the midwest, Asians are all about small businesses or well educated with technical jobs. Exactly the kind of folks I would think support free market principles.
“Further, identity politics work and work well. The Democrats and media have done a good job selling minorities on the idea that we dislike them - and unfortunately, too many conservatives end up speaking in a way that reinforces that stereotype.”
As you said, identity politics work and they work well. I accept that — that “IP” has proven to be the most powerful arrow in the ‘rat’s quiver.
I also accept what you wrote about the perception of minorities that we (Euro-Americans) “dislike” them. And whether they (minorities) believe that or not, it is also clear that they dislike US.
But if that’s the case — that minorities believe we dislike them (and they dislike us), and identity politics work so well for them….. why can’t those same political tactics work for us, in return?
McCain won 55% of the Euro vote in 2008 (and lost).
Romney won 59% of that vote in 2012 (and lost, too).
If Romney had won about 63% of the Euro vote in a few states that are mostly populated by Euros (and have relatively small Hispanic/black/Asian demographics), he would have won.
Yes, Hispanic (and Asian) demographics are increasing, but they are largely concentrated in “blue states” where Republicans can’t win anyway. Nothing you or anyone else in this forum can do or dream, will make California, Illinois or New York vote Republican again.
The “votes that will make a difference” for at least 20 more years are found in Euro-dominant states, cast by Euro-Americans. The problem is, they do NOT currently vote by “group identity”, EXCEPT in one area of the country: the deep South. Some numbers to digest:
In Mississippi, 89% of Euros voted for Romney
In Alabama 84% of Euros voted for Romney.
Contrast this with:
Maine, where 40% of Euros voted for Romney, and in
Vermont, where 33% of Euros voted for Romney.
Can you see what works here, and what does not?
You also wrote:
“We are going to have to reach these people in a whole new way - particularly Asians and Hispanics. Blacks we can probably write off as there is little hope for them.”
Longbow, you’re one of the most realistic and pragmatic writers in this forum, but here you reveal that even you are blinded from the truth. You obviously realize that blacks are never going to come to our side (by the way, if anyone who IS a black conservative is reading this reply, know that you are welcome here — you could probably tell tales about your efforts to win other blacks to your way of thinking). Similarly, we may get the votes of SOME Hispanics and of SOME Asians, but we will probably never get a significant majority of their votes, regardless of whether our “message” is changed (or corrupted) or not.
Why not?
Because people do not “come to conservatism” lured by goodies, the way the ‘rats win their constituencies.
No — folks come to conservatism of their own volition, seeking a set of truths — truths which cannot be changed or “artificially sweetened” so that non-believers can be made to swallow the pill.
Conservatism is as much an individual choice as is religious salvation — one accepts the foundations of conservatism the way one “accepts Jesus as their personal saviour”.
You can’t sell conservatism in exchange for material goods. You might just as well win their votes with “cigarette money”, as do the dems.
And one thing is most certain — you can’t “change the truths” of conservatism in any way that might make it more attractive to non-Euros, without changing it into something it is not.
If that means we are doomed to lose in a war of demographic attrition, well, that’s what it means.
But we can’t deal with reality, unless we’re willing to face it squarely first.